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What Is Crime?

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• Michael J. Lynch ,
• Paul B. Stretesky &
• Michael A. Long  

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M ost criminologists would probably argue that the definition of crime is defined by the state and is not something that they can do much, if anything, to change or influence. Crime is, in this view, what the law states. Using this legal definition, criminologists simply study the causes of crime to determine why some individuals violate the law— perhaps suggesting how various state agencies may do a better job reducing crime and apprehending offenders. We assert that this is a rather unscientific position on the study of crime that lacks both scientific rigor and academic purpose. In this chapter, we emphasize the point that criminologists cannot estimate the extent to which their empirical results reveal something about the causes of crime and that this situation has something to do with the definition of crime. Moreover, we suggest that what criminology really studies is mostly reflective of politics.

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© 2015 Michael J. Lynch, Paul B. Stretesky, and Michael A. Long

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Lynch, M.J., Stretesky, P.B., Long, M.A. (2015). What Is Crime?. In: Defining Crime. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137479358_3

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137479358_3

Publisher Name : Palgrave Macmillan, New York

Print ISBN : 978-1-349-69368-9

Online ISBN : 978-1-137-47935-8

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Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Bar/Tavern Closing Hours and Violent Crime

• 1 Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute, Emeryville, California
• 2 Department of Health Law, Policy, and Management, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts
• 3 Department of Community Health Sciences, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts
• 4 Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts

Question   What is the association of a state-mandated reduction of the number of hours when bars/taverns may sell or serve alcohol with prevention of violent crime near these outlets?

Findings   This interrupted time series analysis of 26 bars/taverns in Baltimore, Maryland, found that reducing hours of alcohol sales from 6 am to 2 am to 9 am to 10 pm was associated with a 23% annual decrease in all violent crime compared with control areas. Furthermore, homicide rates dropped by 51% in the first month post intervention and 40% annually thereafter.

Meaning   These findings suggest that statutory restriction of hours of alcohol sales for bars/taverns may serve as a model for other cities looking to create safer neighborhoods.

Importance   It is well established that alcohol outlets (ie, places that sell alcohol) attract crime, particularly during late-night hours.

Objective   To evaluate the association of Maryland Senate Bill 571 (SB571), which reduced the hours of sale for bars/taverns in 1 Baltimore neighborhood from 6 am to 2 am to 9 am to 10 pm, with violent crime within that neighborhood.

Design, Setting, and Participants   This controlled interrupted time series analysis compared the change in violent crime density within an 800-ft buffer around bars/taverns in the treatment neighborhood (ie, subject to SB571) and 2 control areas with a similar mean baseline crime rate, alcohol outlet density, and neighborhood disadvantage score in the City of Baltimore between May 1, 2018, and December 31, 2022. The interrupted time series using Poisson regression with overdispersion adjustment tested whether the violent crime density differed before vs after the policy change in the treatment neighborhood and whether this difference was localized to the treatment neighborhood.

Exposure   Statutory reduction of bar/tavern selling hours from 20 to 13 hours per day in the treatment neighborhood.

Main Outcomes and Measures   The primary outcome was all violent crime, including homicide, robbery, aggravated and common assault, and forcible rape. Secondary outcomes were homicides and assaults. All violent crime measures summed the monthly incidents within 800 ft of bars/taverns from 8 pm to 4 am . For each outcome, a level change estimated the immediate change (first month after implementation), and a slope change estimated the sustained change after implementation (percent reduction after the first month). These level and slope changes were then compared between the treatment and control neighborhoods.

Results   The treatment neighborhood included 26 bars/taverns (mean [SD] population, 524.6 [234.6] residents), and the control neighborhoods included 41 bars/taverns (mean [SD] population per census block, 570.4 [217.4] residents). There was no immediate level change in density of all violent crimes the month after implementation of SB571; however, compared with the control neighborhoods, the slope of all violent crime density decreased by 23% per year in the treatment neighborhood after SB571 implementation (annualized incidence rate ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.60-0.98; P  = .04). Similar results were seen for homicides and assaults. Several sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of these results.

Conclusions and Relevance   This study’s findings suggest that alcohol policies that reduce hours of sale could be associated with a reduction in violent crimes. Given these findings, SB571 may serve as a model for other cities looking to create safer neighborhoods.

Read More About

Rosen EM , Trangenstein PJ , Fullem PL , Yeh J , Jernigan DH , Xuan Z. Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Bar/Tavern Closing Hours and Violent Crime. JAMA Intern Med. 2024;184(6):612–618. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2024.0255

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Washington Times Covers Our Research: “Harris boasts of falling crime as victims say it’s increasing”

Aug 15, 2024 | Media Coverage

Stephen Dinan at the Washington Times has a long article that was motivated by our work on whether crime rates are going up or down. Here is part of his article that directly discusses our work.

. . . “The question is: Do you want to look at only crimes reported to police, or do you want to look at total crimes, reported and unreported?” said  John R. Lott Jr. , president of the Crime Prevention Research Center. For Mr. Lott, the answer is clear. He says the Bureau of Justice Statistics shows a more accurate trend. “We have two different sources, and I think people who know the issue would say the BJS is kind of the gold standard for doing this stuff,” he said. . . . Harris campaign spokesperson James Singer said: “Crime is down. Border crossings are down. Donald Trump’s angry rants do not change the facts or the results. Under  Trump , America was less safe, and we saw unprecedented violence, chaos and division.” Media fact-checkers generally side with Mr.  Biden . He claimed earlier this year that crime was “near a record 50-year low,” and PolitiFact, using the FBI data as support, rated that as true. The outfit briefly acknowledged the crime victimization survey and glossed over data showing an increase in 2022 by saying the rates are still “far lower” than in the 1990s. Stateline declared last month that “crime rates are decreasing.” CNN, also citing FBI and other police-based data, said it is “clear crime has indeed declined to some extent.” Mr. Lott said refereeing crime trends used to be easier because FBI crime reports and Bureau of Justice Statistics victimization surveys generally agreed. If one went up, the other did too. Now that they are diverging, Mr. Lott said, he suspects the victimization survey is correct and the report-based approach is missing crimes. Average arrest rates in large cities have fallen dramatically. In the years before the pandemic, 44% of violent crime reports ended with arrests. That fell to 20% in 2022, Mr. Lott said. “It’s no surprise you’re going to have a big increase in crime rate when you have a plummeting of arrests,” he said. “We’ve known for a long time whether or not people report crimes to the police is related to whether people think something is going to happen — that people are going to get caught and punished.” Mr. Lott said police may not record all the crimes that people think they have reported. In recent years, some departments have told 911 callers to dial their non-emergency line if no one is in immediate danger. Callers may not follow up but would tell the victimization survey they reported a crime. . . . Polling has consistently shown concerns about crime, with Americans saying they want lawmakers to do something about it. Mr. Lott said they observe everyday interactions. For example, when people walk into a drugstore in a major city, they may suddenly be confronted with security gates at the doors and wares behind locked glass. Mr. Lott said the companies aren’t installing glass cases because of perceptions but because of loss figures. “People see that. They know that’s new,” he said. Stephen Dinan, “Harris boasts of falling crime as victims say it’s increasing,” Washington Times, August 13, 2024.

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Recent posts, on armed american radio: to discuss massive errors in fbi’s active shooting reports, on america first with sebastian gorka: to discuss dems’ false claims on crime and further gun policy, tucker carlson on carrying for protection.

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Fighting crime through tax—the expanded earned income tax credit.

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WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 08: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a Child Tax ... [+] Credit/Earned Income Tax Credit Day of Action event at the South Court Auditorium at Eisenhower Executive Office Building on February 8, 2022 in Washington, DC. Vice President Harris encouraged all Americans to take advantage of child tax credit, which is part of the American Rescue Plan. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has long been recognized as one of the most effective anti-poverty programs in the United States—and has provided much-needed financial relief to millions of low- and moderate-income working families. However, the benefits of the EITC extend far beyond immediate economic impacts on individual families, as recent research suggests that this social safety net program can also play a significant role in reducing crime rates, particularly in communities where financial pressures are felt most acutely.

As Congress debates the 2025 budget, which includes a significant expansion to the EITC, it is crucial to recognize that these proposed changes could do more than simply support individuals in need. An expanded EITC could also improve social conditions on a larger scale by addressing some of the root causes of financially-motivated crimes.

2025 Budget Proposal and Expansion of EITC

The 2025 federal budget proposal includes several expansions to the EITC, reflecting a broader commitment to reducing poverty and enhancing financial security for working families. The expansions are designed to increase the credit amounts for eligible households that fall within the scope of eligibility—as well as widening that scope. The latter particularly focusing on single filers without children who have, in the past, received lower benefits.

The plan would increase the maximum EITC benefit for workers without children from about $540 to nearly $1,500, and raise the income cap from about $16,000 to around $21,000.

One of the more significant changes in the proposed budget is the increase in the maximum credit available to families with children, a group that currently receives the largest share of EITC outlays. This adjustment would provide further resources to households with precarious budgets. The policy proposal includes restoring and making permanent the temporary, and expired, expansion to the EITC contained within the American Rescue Plan .

This expansion would include making full refundability and advanceability of the credit—meaning filers would not be limited in the credit to only the amount of taxes they owe, and would not need to wait until they filed their returns to receive the credit. This would provide immediate economic relief and help families struggling to manage a budget keep their heads above water.

Best High-Yield Savings Accounts Of 2024

Best 5% interest savings accounts of 2024.

Moreover, the proposal aims to extend the EITC to more low-income workers without children, almost tripling the maximum benefit for this group that had previously enjoyed fewer benefits. The proposed expansions would also include a simplification of the application process, making it easier for individuals to claim and receive the credit.

The EITC expansion will have knock-on effects beyond the assistance lent to families in meeting their immediate financial needs—it will also provide a cushion for low and moderate-income taxpayers against future financial shocks. Enhanced economic security is likely to reduce the incidence of poverty-driven behaviors, including certain types of financially-driven crimes, which will in turn contribute to safer and more stable communities.

EITC and Crime Rates

The relationship between financial insecurity, welfare reform, and crime is well-documented and not limited to the US. Economically motivated crimes such as burglary and robbery often rise in areas where residents face significant financial pressures.

The EITC, as one of the largest and most effective anti-poverty programs in the US, has been shown to influence these crime rates—particularly in low-income neighborhoods where its benefits are felt most.

Recent research, including an examination by Brigham Brau and colleagues, provide compelling evidence for the EITC’s specific and direct impact on crime. Their review, which examined the effects of EITC disbursements on crime rates in major US cities like Chicago, New York City, and Los Angeles, found evidence of burglary and robbery rates decreasing significantly in the week of and three weeks following disbursements.

The suggestion is that the financial relief provided by the EITC reduces the immediate and acute economic pressures that might otherwise drive an individual to commit a crime out of financial necessity. While the effect on other types of crime were not as significant, the notable decrease in property-related crimes meant the overall effect of the EITC on crime is largely a depressive one.

In short, by reducing the economic pressures that can lead to some types of crime, the EITC serves as an important tool for improving public safety in vulnerable communities. The proposed expansions to the EITC in the 2025 budget could amplify these crime-reducing effects and contribute to safer neighborhoods and more stable communities.

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