case study on climate change in pakistan

Climate Crisis, Displacement, and the Right to Stay

• Climate Displacement
• Case Studies

Introduction to Pakistan

Pakistan, located in South Asia, is the fifth most populous country in the world with a population of 231.4 million. 1 The country has a rural population of 63% 2 and GDP per capita of $1,505, with more than 20% of the population living below the national poverty line. 3 Pakistan largely has a hot desert climate near the coast in the south while in the northern uplands, the country experiences monsoon and mediterranean-influenced climates. 4 In recent decades, the country has been witnessing increasingly severe extreme weather events, particularly floods, storms and extreme temperature. Currently, the country is recovering from the unprecedented and devastating floods of 2022 which submerged one third of the country. 5 Pakistan’s economy is heavily dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, which employs 38% of the working population 6 and contributes 22,7% to the GDP. 7 The service sector, contributing 52.1% of the GDP 8 , is dominated by key areas such as telecommunication, tourism, and information technology, while the textile industry, making up 58.9% of its export revenue 9 , dominates the industrial sector. While Pakistan gained independence from the British empire in 1947, inherited colonial legacies continue to shape the country’s occupation of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Pakistan’s over-reliance on extractive industries and development models 10 , as well as its heightened vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change.

Mapping Major Climate Events and Climate-Induced Displacement

Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to climate disasters, ranking 15 out of 180 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index 2021. 11 The major climate hazards experienced by Pakistan are flood, extreme temperature, storm, and epidemic, which account for over 60% of the average annual hazard occurrence for 1980-2020. 12 In addition to that, Pakistan also experiences high risk of landslides and droughts. Between 1980 and 2000, the country witnessed 12 separate years of flood with the number increasing to 16 between 2001 and 2020. 13 Between 2008 and 2022, 107 disaster events were reported in Pakistan, amongst which floods displaced a staggering 23.6 million people. 14 In 2022 alone, disastrous floods in Pakistan led to the death of 15,000 people, displaced 8 million across the country, and resulted in damages and losses of over $30.1 billion. 15  In the same year, Pakistan experienced its highest recorded average temperature, contributing to intense heat waves which resulted in significant water and electricity scarcity, along with extensive crop losses. 16 In addition to worsening the widespread poverty in Pakistan and destroying livelihoods, such climate change impacts are exacerbating the existing refugee crisis in the region, with Pakistan hosting over 3.7 million  refugees from conflict affected Afghanistan.

Mapping the Costs of the Climate Crisis

With a GDP of US$ 348.26 billion 17 , Pakistan is currently grappling with a dire economic crisis, marked by a soaring inflation rate of 36.4% in April 2023. 18 This crisis is particularly impacting the country's vulnerable low-income population, who are still reeling from the disastrous consequences of the 2022 floods. The unprecedented floods incurred infrastructure damages amounting to $14.9 billion and caused economic losses totaling $15.2 billion, while the estimated minimum requirements for recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction stood at $16.3 billion. 19 By 2050, climate change impacts, combined with environmental degradation and air pollution, are projected to decrease Pakistan’s GDP by 18% to 20%. 20 Due to sea level rise and increased intensity of cyclones and storms, the country’s coastal areas, including the densely populated former capital of Karachi and the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan, are at extreme risk of flooding, saltwater intrusion and severe infrastructure damage. In addition to damages in the agriculture sector caused by flooding, climate change is increasing uncertainty in crop seasons while sea intrusion is significantly decreasing productive land. About 8 to 10% of Pakistan’s agricultural productivity is estimated to decrease by 2040 due to climate change impacts. 21 Furthermore, the frequency and severity of deadly heat waves in Pakistan is expected to increase in the future, particularly devastating 56% of its urban population 22 dwelling in congested informal settlements without access to basic services and amenities.  

Mapping Resilience and Mitigation Pathways

Pakistan, constituting 2.93 percent of the world's population, is responsible for less than 0.30 percent of the global cumulative carbon dioxide emission. 23 Nevertheless, Pakistan shoulders a substantial weight of the catastrophic consequences brought about by climate change, exhibiting in the the form of increased extreme weather events. Despite its comparatively low emissions, Pakistan pledged to take action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change by signing the Paris Agreement, with the aim of reducing 15 percent of its projected greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and an additional 35 percent with substantial international support. 24 Recognizing the significance of ecosystem restoration to building climate resilience, Pakistan implemented the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme (TBTTP) and the Protected Areas Initiative (PAI). In addition to ecosystem restoration, these programs have created livelihood opportunities for vulnerable populations. With over 70% of Pakistan’s energy supply coming from fossil fuels 25 , Pakistan aims to derive 60% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. 26 Simultaneously, Pakistan plans to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, with the objective of having EVs comprise 30% of the total vehicles on the road. 27

Necessary Changes

Pakistan's efforts in prioritizing renewable resources and advancing climate mitigation initiatives underscore its commitment towards attaining emissions reductions and carbon neutrality. Despite Pakistan's minimal contribution to the climate crisis, the country is disproportionately bearing the brunt of its consequences. The international community must acknowledge this and provide substantial support to Pakistan to ensure a just transition that is inclusive of marginalized, low-income, and overburdened communities. The anticipated effects of climate change are projected to intensify the hardships faced by those residing in informal settlements, particularly due to their precarious locations, inadequate infrastructure, limited resources, and high levels of poverty. The global community needs to support Pakistan in building the climate resilience of its at-risk communities living in slums by providing financial assistance in the form of grants and not loans, as well as technical expertise, and capacity-building opportunities. Furthermore, the government of Pakistan needs to integrate climate resilience considerations into refugee response and resettlement programs in order to protect vulnerable populations fleeing war and conflict, and enhance their ability to adapt to the adverse consequences of climate change. 

• 1 “Population, total - Pakistan,”  The World Bank, accessed June 23, 2023,  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=PK .
• 2 “Rural population (% of total population) - Pakistan”  The World Bank, accessed June 23, 2023,  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=PK .
• 3 “Poverty and Equity Brief - Pakistan,”  The World Bank. April 2023, accessed June 23, 2023, https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/poverty/987B… .
• 4 “Climate Change Knowledge Portal – Pakistan,” The World Bank, accessed June 22, 2023, https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/pakistan/vulnerabi… .
• 5 Sands, Leso, “Pakistan floods: One third of country is under water - minister,” BBC News, August 30, 2022, accessed June 23, 2023,  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62712301 .
• 6  “Employment in agriculture  – Pakistan.” The World Bank, accessed June 24, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=PK .
• 7 “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP) - Pakistan.” The World Bank, accessed June 22, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?locations=PK .
• 8 “Service Sector, value added (% of GDP) - Pakistan.” The World Bank, accessed June 23, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS?locations=PK .
• 9 “Pakistan Trade Summary 2020 Data,” World Integrated Trade Solutions, accessed June 24, 2023, https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/PAK/Year/LTST/Summ… .
• 10 Chaudhry, Dr. Abid & Chaudhry, Hafeez. “Development Chronicle of Pakistan: A Case of Colonial Legacy.” FWU Journal of Social Sciences, 2012, accessed June 22, 2023, http://sbbwu.edu.pk/journal/SUMMER-2012-vol-6-No-1/Paper%207.pdf .
• 11 Eckstein, David, et al, “Global Climate Risk Index: 2021” Germanwatch, January 2021, access June 20, 2023,  https://www.germanwatch.org/sites/default/files/Global%20Climate%20Risk… .
• 12 “Climate Change Knowledge Portal – Pakistan,” The World Bank.
• 13 Ibid (i).
• 14  “Pakistan,” Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, accessed June 18, 2023, https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/pakistan .
• 15 Nabi, Ijaz, “Responding to Pakistan floods,” The Brookings Institution, February 10, 20223, accessed June 25, 2023,  https://www.brookings.edu/articles/pakistan-floods/ .
• 16 Ellis-Petersen, Hannah, & Baloch, Shah Meer, “We are living in hell’: Pakistan and India suffer extreme spring heatwaves,” The Guardian, May 2, 2022, accessed June 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/02/pakistan-india-heatwaves-…
• 17 “Pakistan,” The World Bank, accessed June 16, 2023,  https://data.worldbank.org/country/PK .
• 18 Shahid, Ariba, “Food pushes Pakistan inflation to record 36.4% in April,” May 2, 2023, accessed June 27, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/pakistan-inflation-hits-record-364… .
• 19 Nabi, Ijaz, “Responding to Pakistan floods,” The Brookings Institution.
• 20 “Pakistan Urgently Needs Significant Investments in Climate Resilience,” The World Bank, November 10, 2022, accessed June 24, 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/11/10/pakistan-urg… .
• 21 “Pakistan - Climate Risk Country Profile,” The World Bank, accessed June 9, 2023, https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-0… .
• 22 “Population living in slums (% of urban population) - Pakistan,”  The World Bank, accessed June 23, 2023,  https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS?locations=PK .
• 23 “Pakistan: CO2 Country Profile,” Our World in Data, accessed June 12, 2023,  https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/pakistan#what-share-of-global-cu… .
• 24 “Nationally Determined Contribution - Pakistan” the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, 2021, accessed June 16, 2023, https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Pakistan%20Updated%2… .
• 25 “Energy Profile - Pakistan,” International Renewable Energy Agency, accessed  June 27, 2023, https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Statistics/Statistical… .
• 26 “Nationally Determined Contribution - Pakistan” the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
• 27 Ibid (ii).

Pakistan at a glance

• Storms: tropical storms (cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons), extratropical/winter storms, local storms (tornadoes, blizzards and snowstorms, sand storms, hail storms, lightning)
• Floods: land-borne or riverine floods (caused by heavy rains, snow melt, and breaking of banks), sea-borne or coastal floods (caused by storm surges and breaking of levees), flash floods (caused by snow melt run-off, dam bursts and sudden water release)
• Extreme Temperatures: cold snaps and extreme winter conditions, heat waves
• Wildfires: brush, forest, grass and savannah
• Dry mass movement: rock falls, landslides, avalanches, sudden subsidence and sinkholes
• Wet mass movements: landslides, avalanches and sudden subsidence

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• Published: 13 April 2024

Climate warming contributes to the record-shattering 2022 Pakistan rainfall

• Yujia You 1 , 2 ,
• Mingfang Ting   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4302-4614 1 &
• Michela Biasutti   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-6681-1533 1  

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science volume  7 , Article number:  89 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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• Atmospheric dynamics
• Attribution
• Projection and prediction

A sequence of torrential rainstorms pounded Pakistan in the summer of 2022, shattering records by massive margins (7 sigma). The severe socioeconomic damages underscore the urgency of identifying its dynamic drivers and relationship with human-induced climate change. Here, we find that the downpours were primarily initiated by the synoptic low-pressure systems, whose intensity and longevity far exceeded their counterparts in history as fueled by a historically-high cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea. The moisture transport has been trending upward since the 1960s and, in 2022, along with the anomalous easterly moisture influx caused by the combination of La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole events, created a corridor of heavy rainfall extending from central India toward southern Pakistan. While it is not yet established whether the observed trend of the cross-equatorial moisture transport has exceeded natural variability, model-based analysis confirms that it is consistent with the fingerprint of anthropogenic climate warming and will raise the likelihood of such rare events substantially in the coming decades.

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Introduction.

Pakistan is located at the western edge of the pluvial region of the South Asian summer monsoon. Much of Pakistan’s territory receives little rain, especially the southern coasts and the lowland plains of the Indus River 1 . The exception is the northernmost mountains, where moisture in the monsoon flow is lifted over the steep terrain of the Himalayas and condenses to fall as rain or snow 2 (Fig. 1a ). Torrential rainfall over Pakistan often produces catastrophic socioeconomic consequences, whether over the northern mountains, where landslides are often triggered, or over the southern low-lying deserts, where water has nowhere to drain and return to river channels. From mid-June until the end of August 2022, a sequence of record-breaking deluges pummeled Pakistan (Fig. 1b ), compounding the effect of unprecedented glacial melt 3 . The accumulated rainfall amount exceeded the most notorious flood in 2010 and all instrumental records over the last 50-years 3 . Close to 2000 people perished, over 2.1 million residents were left homeless, more than 75,000 km 2 of Pakistan were inundated, and at least $30 billion (U.S. dollars) in economic damage were suffered 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 . The extraordinary magnitude and impact of the 2022 flood make it imperative to identify the physical processes and forcing factors that initiated it.

a Climatology of summer (June-September) rainfall (mm/day; shading) and b 2022 summer rainfall anomaly (mm/day) based on CPC UNI rainfall dataset. Time series and boxplot of the summer rainfall averaged over c , d Pakistan, e , f northern Pakistan (to the north of 30°N), and g , h southern Pakistan (to the south of 30°N) during 1979–2022. The box extends from the lower to upper quartile, with a line at the median. The whiskers extend from the 5th to the 95th percentile. The black diamonds denote outliers during the period 1979–2021, and the colorful diamonds represent 2022 values. Blue, gray, green, and red colors represent GPCC, CHIRPS, CMAP, and CPC UNI rainfall datasets, respectively. Dashed lines in ( c , e , g ) denote 5 standard deviations (σ) for the corresponding datasets.

The causes of the historical floods over Pakistan have been investigated in the literature 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 . On the synoptic scale, it is typically the South Asian monsoon low-pressure systems (LPSs) that often trigger deep convection and bring copious rainfall ahead and south of the storm center 8 , 9 , 10 . A large fraction of LPSs originate near the Bay of Bengal and penetrate deeper inland, where they play a crucial role in determining the amount and distribution of the summer rainfall over South Asia 11 , 12 . It has also been suggested that the upper-level divergence resulting from the extratropical troughs lying aloft northern Pakistan contributed to the extreme rainfall in 1988, 2010, and 2013 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 . On the planetary scale, both Pakistan rainfall and its synoptic triggers are influenced by the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation, which is further regulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans [e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)] 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 .

Nonetheless, the unprecedented intensity of the 2022 event, which shattered the historical record by hundreds of millimeters, puts it beyond what many previous studies considered plausible under the current climate conditions. Tropical SST anomalies (i.e., the La Niña and Indian Ocean Dipole events) and the anomalous upstream blocking over northeastern Europe have been postulated as contributors of the extreme rainfall over Pakistan 22 , 23 . However, these climate anomalies were not unprecedented. On the other hand, studies reported that climate warming has enhanced Pakistan rainfall intensity by more than 50% 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , though the exact mechanisms remain unexplored and the impact of climate warming manifest on longer timescales as gradual changes. The overarching goal of this study is therefore to examine the multiscale triggers of this unprecedented extreme event and to address the question of whether this rare flood was a mere coincidence event resulting from the synergetic interaction of natural fluctuations, or was it instead unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system.

Unprecedented summer rainfall over Pakistan and meteorological triggers

Based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation, the 2022 summer (June-September) country-wide average precipitation was 3.95 mm/day, exceeding the previous 42-year (1980–2021) average of 1.03 mm/day by 283% and by 7 times its interannual standard deviation (Fig. 1c ). The 2022 flood is not only much worse in magnitude but also distinct in its spatial characteristics compared to the notorious flood in 2010, when the rainfall primarily occurred in the wetter northern highlands (Fig. 1e ; refs. 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 ). During 2022, the largest rainfall increase was located over the drier southern flat plains (Fig. 1b ), where the climatological summer mean rainfall is less than 0.6 mm/day (Fig. 1 a, g ). The anomalous rainfall was not geographically isolated to Pakistan. Instead, it stretched over a corridor extending northwestward from central India, with the heaviest precipitation concentrated over southern Pakistan (Fig. 1b ). While the yearly time series of Pakistan rainfall are highly correlated among the datasets used in the current study, there are some discrepancies in the magnitude of the 2022 rainfall across the different datasets (“Methods” section). However, the 2022 rainfall clearly shows up as the only exceptionally rare event, shattering records by large margins in all datasets, over both southern Pakistan and Pakistan as a whole (Fig. 1d, f, h ). This result holds even dating back to 1890 (Supplementary Fig. 1 ).

From mid-June until the end of August 2022, six unusually intense rainstorms pounded Pakistan (Fig. 2a , blue bars). The 2022 flood was not the result of any singular major rain event, but rather the cumulative effect of multiple episodic heavy deluges. The temporal evolutions of daily rainfall during the six rain pulses are mapped in Supplementary Fig. 2 . The most prominent feature, noticeable in all pulses, is the northwestward progression of rainfall hotspots across central India toward Pakistan, which is in agreement with the seasonal rainfall anomalies shown in Fig. 1b . The clear signature of migrating rainfall centers in Supplementary Fig. 2 raises the possibility that the synoptic LPSs, which mostly form near the Bay of Bengal and travel northwestward (Fig. 2b ; ref. 26 ), may have been the culprit of the heavy rainfall events in 2022.

a Daily rainfall averaged over Pakistan from June 1st to September 30th, 2022. The purple horizontal lines indicate the lifespan of each individual LPS by objective tracking. The green and red vertical stripes represent the presence of LPS inside Pakistan box (green box in b , c ) based on the objective tracking algorithm and manual tracking method, respectively. The black line denotes the daily cross-equatorial moisture transport, defined as the area-average integrated vapor transport (IVT) over the blue boxed region in e (kg m −1 s −1 ). b Climatological LPS genesis density (number of LPS per summer; orange contour) and cyclolysis density (number of LPS per summer; blue contour), overlapped with the trajectories of 2022 LPS (green start points, pink ending dots, gray tracks). c Anomalies of 2022 LPS track density (number of LPS days; shading) and LPS-related rainfall (mm/day; dots), overlapped with the climatological LPS track density (number of LPS days per summer; contour). d LPS genesis number, mean intensity, and days spent in Pakistan box of 2022 LPS (colorful diamonds) as compared to historical LPS (1980–2021; boxplot made in the same manner as Fig. 1d ). e Composites of anomalous daily moisture fluxes (kg m −1  s −1 ; vector) and its convergence (mm/day; shading) when the 2022 LPS were present in the Pakistan box. f 2022 summer mean moisture flux (kg m −1  s −1 ; vector) and its convergence (mm/day; shading) anomalies. g Scatter plot of the normalized summer mean cross-equatorial moisture transport ( x axis) and the normalized number of days when LPS were present in the Pakistan region ( y axis). Correlations are shown with (0.51) and without (0.47) 2022 values. The size and color of markers indicate the normalized average summer rainfall anomalies over Pakistan.

To substantiate this conjecture, we compile the trajectories of South Asian LPSs in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) using an objective feature tracking algorithm (Methods). The green vertical strips in Fig. 2a denote the presence of LPS near Pakistan [i.e., within the Pakistan (PK) box in Fig. 2b ]. The trajectories obtained by the tracking algorithm are validated against the manual LPS identification from weather charts (red stripes in Fig. 2a and Supplementary Fig. 3 ). With the exception of the first rainfall episode in mid-June, all the subsequent five rainfall pulses were triggered by LPSs. The climatological mean distribution of LPS cyclogenesis and cyclolysis locations during the previous 42-year period (1980–2021) are displayed in Fig. 2b , overlapped with the corresponding locations of the 2022 LPSs. Historically, most of the LPSs formed over the Bay of Bengal, propagated northwestward, dissipated over central India, and were incapable of producing much rainfall over Pakistan. In contrast, the majority of the 2022 LPSs traveled beyond the endpoints of the historical LPSs (Fig. 2b , pink dots) and had stronger-than-average cyclone intensity (Fig. 2d , red boxplot). As a consequence, even though the LPS genesis was below-average in 2022 (Fig. 2d , blue boxplot), the LPS activity over Pakistan was record-high (Fig. 2d , green boxplot; Fig. 2c ), favoring anomalous heavy rainfall from central India to southern Pakistan (Fig. 2c , blue dots).

Large-scale circulation anomalies and contribution of anthropogenic forcings

The genesis, propagation, and dissipation of synoptic storms are, to a large extent, regulated by the ambient large-scale environment, and specifically by the availability of moisture fueling deep convection and the attendant circulation. How much, then, was the unusually strong 2022 LPS activity due to large-scale circulation anomalies? To explore this question, we determine the large-scale circulation pattern that favored the anomalously strong 2022 LPS activity by compositing those days when the 2022 LPSs were present in the Pakistan box (Fig. 2e ). The LPS and intense rainfall were associated with a conveyor belt of water vapor originating from the South Indian Ocean and traveling off the coast of Somalia toward Northwestern India and Pakistan (blue boxed region, Fig. 2e ). The potential importance of the landward moisture transport in promoting LPS activity in Pakistan is also evidenced by daily time series of moisture transport, which appears to precondition the presence of LPS over Pakistan and the occurrence of extreme rainfall (Fig. 2a , black solid line) in early July and mid-August. These results suggest that the cross-equatorial transport and the resultant moisture buildup over the subcontinent might supply the fuel needed for LPS-related convection and the energy that sustains the LPS against dissipating forces.

The results in Fig. 2 a, e , while strongly suggestive of the role of cross-equatorial moisture transport in sustaining the LPSs from dissipation before they reach Pakistan, may not provide a solid evidence of causality, since the cross-equatorial flow could have been caused by the presence of stronger LPS circulation, which subsequently led to stronger moisture transport over the tropical Indian Ocean (Fig. 2e ). To further elucidate the relationship, we compare the moisture transport for the LPS days to the seasonal mean (c.f., Fig. 2 e, f ). On the seasonal timescale, the transient cyclonic circulation associated with LPS was absent, whereas the above-normal cross-equatorial moisture transport still existed, albeit with a weaker strength (Fig. 2f ). Additionally, in accordance with the extraordinary LPS activity, the summer mean cross-equatorial moisture transport was the second strongest in 2022 (Fig. 2g ) and its strength is positively correlated with the number of days when the LPS influenced the Pakistan region ( r  = 0.51 and 0.47 with and without 2022, respectively). Note that while the cross-equatorial moisture transport was strong in 2010 and 2022, the moisture flow stagnated over the Arabian Sea and did not ever reach the Indian subcontinent (not shown). The relationship on seasonal-to-interannual timescales indicates a clear causal link: increased cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea can enhance LPS activity over Pakistan. While anomalous moisture import was also noticeable over the Bay of Bengal (Fig. 2f ), it did not contribute significantly to the Pakistan LPS activity ( r  = −0.26 without 2022; Supplementary Fig. 4 ), probably because the background total column water vapor over the Bay of Bengal is already high.

The ultimate cause of the 2022 circulation anomalies can be either natural modes of variability or shifts in the background climate state due to anthropogenic forcings. The yearly time series of the net moisture flux into the Pakistan domain is shown in Fig. 3a , together with its zonal and meridional components (see Methods). Climatologically, the large net outflow of moisture in the zonal direction is partially compensated by the net moisture inflow in the meridional direction. Both components have experienced significant long-term changes. The zonal outflow is trending upward at a rate of 3.56% (−0.44 × 10 7  kg s −1 ) per decade, and the meridional inflow is increasing at a rate of 17.46% (1.29 × 10 7  kg s −1 ) per decade (Fig. 3a ). In 2022, the meridional moisture influx was at a historical high and was favored by the ongoing trend, whereas the zonal outflow was weaker than what the trend would lead us to expect. The combination of a strong inflow and a weak outflow yielded a large anomalous convergence in 2022. The clear monotonic trend in observation is in strong agreement with the projected change made by climate models 28 , 29 , thus highlighting the importance of climate warming in setting the favorable environment for Pakistan flood, though there are certainly contributions from natural modes of variability. The robustness of the upward trend is verified by multiple reanalysis products (Supplementary Fig. 5 ).

a Net moisture inflow into the Pakistan domain (10 8  kg s −1 ; blue line). Red and yellow lines are for meridional and zonal component, respectively. Significant linear trend fitted to the data as dashed lines. b Scatter plot of the normalized summer mean cold tongue index (CTI; 6°S-6°N, 180°−90°W; x axis) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index [SST anomaly difference between the western (10°S-10°N, 50°−70°E) and eastern Indian Ocean (10°S-0°, 90°−108°E); y axis] over the period 1980–2022. Extreme ENSO and IOD events defined as exceedances of ± 0.5σ (dashed gray lines) due to the limited sample size. Correlations outside and inside the parentheses are calculated with and without 2022 values, respectively. Purple numbers indicate sample size in each subcategory. c Linear trend of moisture fluxes (kg m −1  s −1 per decade; vector) and its convergence (mm/day per decade; shading) in 1980–2022. d Difference of moisture flux anomalies (kg m −1  s −1 ; vector) and its convergence (mm/day; shading) between summers with negative phases of ENSO and IOD and summers with positive phases. The darker vectors in c , d represent statistical significance at 95% confidence level based on two-sided Student’s t test. Moisture fluxes and sea surface temperature are taken from MERRA-2 and ERSST v5, respectively.

During the summer of 2022, cold SST anomalies were observed over the eastern tropical Pacific and western Indian Ocean with warm SST anomalies in the western tropical Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean (Supplementary Fig. 6 ). These anomalies are consistent with La Niña conditions, which persisted for a third year, co-occurring with a strong negative IOD (Fig. 3b ). La Niña events are associated with stronger-than-normal monsoon circulation and excessive rainfall over the Indian subcontinent 17 . However, the negative IOD events frequently lead to a weakening and southward shift in the monsoon ascending branch, resulting in an unfavorable condition for Pakistan flood 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 . In our study period, the Pakistan country-wide average rainfall is negatively correlated with ENSO ( r  = −0.37) but has no statistically significant relationship with IOD ( r  = 0.05 without 2022). Nonetheless, the occurrences of ENSO and IOD events are, to some degree, not independent of each other and their influences on the South Asian monsoon rainfall are coumpounded 19 . To better demonstrate the combined effects of La Niña and negative IOD in our study period, the moisture transport anomalies during summers with negative phases of ENSO and IOD are subtracted from anomalies during summers with positive phases (Fig. 3d ). There are similarities between the ENSO-IOD composite and the 2022 anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and the eastern Indian Ocean. In the ENSO-IOD composite, the anomalous easterly moisture flux over central India tend to reduce the moisture outflow over Pakistan (Fig. 3d ), hinting that the 2022 Pakistan rainfall could partly arise from intrinsic, natural variability. However, it completely lacks the cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea, which was a strong feature in summer 2022. The absence of the cross-equatorial moisture transport in the ENSO and IOD composite, together with the prominent long-term trend of this moisture transport (Fig. 3c ), highlight the contribution of externally-forced climate background shifts.

Increasing likelihood under global warming

To estimate the possible anthropogenic contribution to the cross-equatorial moisture transport, we analyze an ensemble of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6; Methods) and estimate the forced change during the historical period as the multi-model ensemble average. Compared to the notable enhancement in the observed Pakistan summer rainfall (>27% per decade in some regions; Fig. 4a ), the externally forced change indicates a moderate but spatially homogeneous increase (4–5% per decade; Fig. 4b ). The increase is anchored by an enhanced cross-equatorial moisture transport (Fig. 4c ), consistent with observations (Fig. 3c ). Additionally, the forced response is, to a large extent, the consequence of increasing greenhouse gases (GHG), as single-forcing simulation with a subset of the CMIP6 models confirms that GHG alone is sufficient to produce a wetting trend and an increased cross-equatorial moisture transport (Supplementary Fig. 7 ).

a , b Linear trend of summer rainfall (% per decade; shading) in ( a ) CPC UNI during 1980–2022 and ( b ) historical experiment of CMIP6 models during 1980–2014. c Linear trend of summer mean moisture fluxes and its magnitude (kg m −1  s −1 per decade; shading) in CMIP6 historical all-forcing experiment. d Occurrence of Pakistan extreme rainfall (>98th percentile of summer mean Pakistan rainfall in the reference period 1951–1980) in models with ensemble size no less than 5 (bolded models in Supplementary Table 2 ). The box extends from the lower to upper quartile, with a line at the median. The whiskers extend from the 5th to the 95th percentile. The diamonds denote outliers. Green boxplot for historical experiment during 1985–2014. Orange and pink boxplots for SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 experiments during 2020–2049. Dashed line represents 2% occurrence. Hatching in ( a ) denotes regions where the observed trends are not significant at 95% confidence level and ( b ) regions where the model ensemble mean trend lacks sufficient model agreements (defined as smaller than 75% models having the same trend sign).

To quantify the impacts of anthropogenic forcings on the occurrence probability of heavy rainfall over Pakistan across models, we calculate the probability of summer seasonal mean Pakistan heavy rainfall (i.e., exceedances of the 98th percentile of summer rainfall over the base period 1951~1980) in each ensemble member for two subsequent 30-year periods, i.e., 1985–2014 and 2020–2049 (Fig. 4d ). The 98th percentile is chosen because CMIP6 models are unable to simulate events that have comparable intensity as the 2022 event (i.e., 4–7σ) and such an extreme event rarely occurs in the real world (one event in observational record since the 1980s). In simulations forced with the historical anthropogenic forcings, there is virtually no change in the occurrence of extreme rainfall during the recent past (0–9.3%). Nonetheless, even under a moderate emission scenario (SSP2–4.5), large majority of the models indicate a significant increase in the occurrence of extreme events in the coming decades. Under a higher emission scenario (SSP5–8.5), some of the models project a more extreme enhancement, although the increment is not statistically distinguishable from that in the SSP2–4.5. The strong inter-model consensus on the wetting trend over Pakistan is noteworthy since the agreement is not due to thermodynamic moistening, but due to the dynamical enhancement of the monsoonal cross-equatorial moisture transport (Supplementary Fig. 8 ) and more frequent LPS activity (Supplementary Fig. 9c ). Despite the inter-model agreement on the sign of change, the magnitude of the wetting is still subject to large uncertainty (e.g., 1.7–19% under SSP2–4.5). Though a complete analysis of the source of this uncertainty is beyond the scope of the present study, we impute it to the models’ varying ability to simulate the LPSs, which cannot be well resolved with coarse resolution models (Supplementary Fig. 9d ; ref. 30 ).

How will the modes of internal variability alter rainfall extremes over Pakistan in the coming decades, as the globe continues to warm? Models indicate that the frequency and intensity of La Niña and negative IOD events remain approximately unchanged from the 1951–1980 reference period to the recent past and near future decades (Supplementary Figs. 10a, b ); nonetheless, the Pakistan rainfall anomalies during the extreme phases of these two modes show an unequivocal tendency toward greater magnitude as time progresses (Supplementary Fig. 10c ), pinpointing the clear predominance of climate change in the future variability of Pakistan rainfall.

Our multiscale investigation examines the meteorological triggers and the large-scale circulation drivers that initiated the unprecedented Pakistan rainfall in summer 2022, which broke records by huge margins (283% and 7σ exceedance). Our goal is to understand if such an extreme event merely resulted from the accidental combination of natural modes of fluctuations, or whether its occurrence relied on the additive effect of the anthropogenically-forced warming and internal variability.

We find that the record-breaking rainfall was not caused by a single major rainfall event, but resulted from the cumulative effect of six episodes of heavy rainfall, which were triggered by the synoptic low-pressure systems (LPSs) migrating northwestward through central India into southern Pakistan. In 2022, the LPS survived longer, traveled farther westward, and resided over the dry Pakistan for an extraordinarily long time as compared to most of their historical counterparts. A comparison of observations and climate models indicates that both internal variability and anthropogenic warming were conducive to the excessive Pakistan rainfall in summer 2022. While the internal variability arising from the sea surface temperature anomalies (i.e., La Niña and negative IOD) promoted Pakistan rainfall by reducing the mean eastward moisture outflow, it was the anthropogenically-driven enhancement in the cross-equatorial moisture transport over the Arabian Sea that supplied the fuel needed for LPS-related convection and consequently, enhanced the ability of LPSs to propagate farther westward into Pakistan before being dissipated. Multiple global reanalyses and models confirm that the cross-equatorial moisture transport in summer 2022, although abnormal, is in line with the unambiguous upward trend since the 1960s due to anthropogenic warming. Continued warming will cause the probability of extreme Pakistan rainfall to increase substantially in the coming decades, even under a moderate emission scenario.

Observation

The gridded daily rainfall data are obtained from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Global Daily Precipitation (CPC-UNI; ref. 31 ), Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP; ref. 32 ), the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC; ref. 33 ), and Climate Hazards center InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS; ref. 34 ). The reanalysis six-hourly and monthly data at 0.5° x 0.625° lat/lon horizontal grid is taken from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2; ref. 35 ), which spans the period 1980 to present. Compared to other reanalysis products (JRA-55 36 , NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 37 , and ERA5 38 ), MERRA-2 is chosen for the current study because of the higher degree of consistency between MERRA-2 rainfall and the gauge-based observations (Supplementary Table 1 ). The observed monthly sea surface temperature data is taken from the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstruction of Historical Sea Surface Temperature version 5 (ERSST v5) 39 .

Monthly mean data from models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6; ref. 40 ) is employed. The historical all-forcing experiment, historical single-forcing experiment, and future projections under scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were considered. The historical all-forcing simulations is forced with observed time-varying changes in atmospheric composition (natural and anthropogenic) and land cover, whereas the single-forcing simulation is driven solely by greenhouse gases. SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 correspond to an additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W m −2 and 8.5 W m −2 by the year 2100, respectively. The information of CMIP6 models and the number of ensemble members can be found in Supplementary Table 2 .

Objective feature tracking of the South Asian monsoon low-pressure systems

Due to the overall weaker intensity of the South Asian monsoon LPSs as compared to tropical cyclones, tracking LPSs using reanalysis is challenging using automatic tracking algorithms 10 , 26 , 41 , 42 , 43 . The objective algorithm we used to create the objective LPS trajectories is built upon on the TempestExtreme 44 with 6-hourly MERRA-2 reanalysis.

Our algorithm mimics manual tracking procedure and generally follows the one discussed in refs. 30 , 45 , 46 , 47 using 850 hPa relative vorticity and sea level pressure fields. To reduce the bias that may be introduced from intra-seasonal and interannual variability, the synoptic fluctuations in sea level pressure are extracted using a 21-day high-pass filter. To reduce noise, the vorticity and sea level pressure fields are spectrally filtered to retain total wavenumber 5–42 and 5–63, respectively. The algorithm proceeds by identifying LPS candidates that have local vorticity maxima exceeding 4 × 10 –5  s −1 at each time step. To remove ambiguous candidates that are too weak to be identified as LPS, a closed contour criterion is further applied to ensure closed circulation centers by requiring a 0.2 hPa increase of sea level pressure increase within 5° of the candidate points. Nearby candidates are then stitched on sequential time steps to form trajectories with a maximum translation distance between candidates of 5°. Candidates that do not exhibit behavior consistent with a transiting feature are eliminated. Finally, only cyclones that last at least 2 days and have at least 1 track point within the domain 10°N-35°N, 60°E-95°E are retained. The bash script to obtain our LPS trajectories using TempestExtremes can be found in Supplementary Method 1 . The parameters of the tracking algorithm were determined and validated to best match the manual tracking results of 2022 LPS provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (Extended Data Fig. 2b ; ref. 3 ).

To measure LPS activities, the genesis density, track density, and translation velocity, are calculated. The genesis (track) density is computed by counting the number of LPS genesis (track) points within 500 km of each grid point each summer from June to September. Because the LPS locations are reported at 6-hourly time interval, we further divide the track density by four to convert the unit into number of LPS days. The translation velocity is computed using neighboring track positions. Daily rainfall is considered to be LPS-induced when a LPS is present within 500 km radius of the grid point during a time window of ±1 day. The time window of ±1 day is used to accommodate the potential underestimation due to the rainfall daily resolution, since precipitation from a single storm can occur within a consecutive time window 48 , 49 .

Moisture budget analysis

The column-integrated moisture budget for a steady-state atmosphere can be written in pressure coordinates as

where P represents precipitation, E is evaporation, g denotes gravitational acceleration, \(\rho\) is the water density, q is specific humidity, u is zonal wind, v is meridional wind, p is pressure and p s is its surface value.

For Pakistan region (20°N-32.5°N, 60°E-72.5°E; green boxed region in Fig. 2b ), the net moisture budget can be simplified as:

where the angle bracket represents areal average and ∮ denotes contour integral across the Pakistan box lateral boundaries. The first and second terms on the right-hand side represent the net moisture inflow in zonal and meridional direction, respectively.

Data availability

MERRA-2 data used in this study are available at Modeling and Assimilation Data and Information Services Center ( https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2 ). CMIP6 data are openly available in the Earth System Grid Federation portal ( https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/ ).

Code availability

TempestExtreme can be downloaded from https://github.com/ClimateGlobalChange/tempestextremes . All figures were produced using Python v.3.6 and NCAR Command Language. The codes used for the analyses are available from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation Grant AGS16–07348. Y. You. was supported by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) program – grant 80NSSC20K1656.

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You, Y., Ting, M. & Biasutti, M. Climate warming contributes to the record-shattering 2022 Pakistan rainfall. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7 , 89 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00630-4

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In a First Study of Pakistan’s Floods, Scientists See Climate Change at Work

A growing field called attribution science is helping researchers rapidly assess the links between global warming and weather disasters.

By Raymond Zhong

Pakistan began receiving abnormally heavy rain in mid-June, and, by late August, drenching downpours were declared a national emergency. The southern part of the Indus River , which traverses the length of the country, became a vast lake. Villages have become islands , surrounded by putrid water that stretches to the horizon. More than 1,500 people have died. Floodwaters could take months to recede.

The deluges were made worse by global warming caused by greenhouse-gas emissions, scientists said Thursday, drawing upon a fast-growing field of research that gauges the influence of climate change on specific extreme weather events soon after they occur — and while societies are still dealing with their shattering consequences.

As climate scientists’ techniques improve, they can assess, with ever-greater confidence and specificity, how human-induced changes in Earth’s chemistry are affecting the severe weather outside our windows, adding weight and urgency to questions about how nations should adapt.

The floods in Pakistan are the deadliest in a recent string of eye-popping weather extremes across the Northern Hemisphere: relentless droughts in the Horn of Africa , Mexico and China ; flash floods in West and Central Africa , Iran and the inland United States ; searing heat waves in India , Japan , California , Britain and Europe .

Scientists have warned for decades that some kinds of extreme weather are becoming more frequent and intense as more heat-trapping gases get pumped into the atmosphere. As the planet warms, more water evaporates from the oceans. Hotter air also holds more moisture. So storms like those that come with the South Asian monsoon can pack a bigger punch.

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Climate Change and Water Crises in Pakistan: Implications on Water Quality and Health Risks

Waseem ishaque.

1 Director Area Study Centre (China), NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Rida Tanvir

2 Department of International Relations, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Mudassir Mukhtar

3 HoD Media and Communication Studies, NUML, Islamabad, Pakistan

Associated Data

The data used to support the findings of this study are included within this article.

Pakistan is vulnerable and most affected by adverse impacts of climate change. The study examines the impact of climate change on Pakistan during the year 2022, resulting into unprecedented heatwave and drought in summers followed by the abnormal rains and floods during monsoon season. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which has been devastated by both drought and floods. While the flood water is gradually receding, the stagnant contaminated water is causing several health risks for the inhabitants. This research argues that water security is the emerging national security challenge for Pakistan. The article investigates the status of water availability vis-a-vis the burgeoning population, agriculture, and other uses of water. Impact of abnormal melting of glaciers, nonavailability of dams for storage of rainwater, and lack of smart means for agriculture water have been examined to empirically validate the arguments.

1. Introduction

Climate change has become international buzzword today and it is “no longer an unfamiliar term, which can be comprehended through personal knowledge, experience, and interactions” [ 1 ]. The phenomenon of climate change is largely attributed to human induced actions, more specifically in terms of emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [ 2 ]. Therefore, the phenomena of climate change are producing many threats on the Earth surface, ranging from droughts, heavy precipitation, and heatwaves to unprecedented tropical cyclones [ 3 ]. All these disasters have varying degree of impact over different geographical zones, resulting into environmental, health, economic, and social impact. There is no denying the fact that the world we live in today is far more vulnerable and affected by the negative impacts of climate change. However, the greatest health impact is being witnessed in the countries which have least share in greenhouse emissions [ 4 ]. There is also strong realization to attend to climate emergency, which is causing water security issues around the globe, and threatens food security, agricultural yield, food supply, and prices with serious implications on sustainable development, poverty, and inequality. The UNICEF warns about the availability and use of water in a nicely crafted statement that “the world needs to get water smart, and everyone has to realize that they have a role to play, and we cannot afford to wait” [ 5 ]. The “climate change is happening right now, and its effects are being felt around the world” [ 6 ].

Pakistan is vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change, therefore, susceptible to unusual weather patterns, which can create strategic challenges [ 7 ]. The rising temperatures are causing rapid melting of glaciers in northern areas and unusual rains as seen in monsoon this year have created mayhem through floods, unprecedented in Pakistan's history in last 30 years. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated that Pakistan is facing “the unrelenting effects of epochal levels of rains and flooding” [ 8 ]. The men and material losses are enormous and therefore, Pakistan is likely to face water crisis, food shortages, and serious implications for human security. Reacting to the recent flood situation in Pakistan, the Finance Minister Mr Miftah Ismail stated that “Pakistan is dealing with the worst effects of the climate change, which has caused over US$ 30 billion loss to Pakistan's economy and displacing 33 million people” [ 9 ]. This study explores the impacts of climate change on the availability, usage, and storage of water in Pakistan. The drought and floods of year 2022 have been taken as case study for analyzing the impacts of climate change across Pakistan by sampling both rural and urban areas. Figure 1 shows the sectoral usage of available water in Pakistan.

Sectoral distribution of water consumption in Pakistan.

2. Materials and Methods

The year 2022 is unprecedented in Pakistan's history of last three decades. The summers produced extreme temperatures which resulted in unusual melting of glaciers in northern areas of Pakistan resulting in partial collapse of bridge near Hassanabad in Hunza [ 10 ] as shown in Figure 2 .

Partial collapse of Hassanabad bridge.

Later, the exceptional monsoon rains produced extraordinary floods across the country, with huge men and material losses. The evolving trends indicate that Pakistan is most vulnerable to climate change. The floods have devastated the agriculture, livestock, and infrastructure. The loss to national economy is estimated at US$ 30 billion [ 11 ]. The survey and data analyses of past two and half decades reveal that Pakistan confronted from absolute dry and drought situations to devastating floods to the extent of witnessing both phenomenon in one calendar year as happening in the ongoing year 2022. The study has been completed by considering drought and floods data from primary and secondary sources with particular focus on this year. The field visits to rural and urban areas of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Baluchistan were conducted for obtaining the first-hand information and data on the impacts of flood situation. The relevant officials in the ministry of climate change and meteorological offices were also interviewed and their views have been incorporated in the study for developing a comprehensive picture, conducting rationale analyses, and arriving at workable findings. The study is very contemporary and relevant and expected to provide valuable policy guidelines to relevant government ministries in Pakistan as they are grappling with the ongoing flood situation and rehabilitation process. Figure 3 highlights the vulnerability of Pakistan to climate change risks in the global context, which has been explored further in the study to empirically prove the vulnerabilities and risks.

Climate risk indexing and Pakistan's vulnerability [ 12 ].

3. Findings

3.1. deciphering the impact of climate change on pakistan.

Climate remains the most debated yet least addressed issue for decades. World leaders have often joined heads to tackle this global phenomenon but with little to no success. From motivational speeches to documentaries and movies on the effects of climate change on the Earth has been narrated time and again but to no avail [ 13 ]. The developed countries remain aloof of devastating effects of greenhouse gas emission is causing to the ozone layer. The growing depletion of the ozone layer is resulting in increased Ultraviolet (UV) radiations level on the surface of Earth, which has detrimental impact on human health resulting in cancer and weak immune system [ 14 ]. These UV radiations have devastating effect on the agriculture sector as well due to low yield of the crops [ 15 ]. Scientists have been talking about the infamous “black hole” in the Antarctic region for years. But the recent research in the year 2022 has discovered a hole in the Tropics (Tropics are the regions of the Earth near the equator) which is seven times bigger than the Antarctic region [ 16 ]. The more alarming situation is that, despite all this, the industrialized countries are less concerned by the deteriorating ozone and increase in global warming. Various protocols and initiatives like Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen accord, and Paris accord had been initiated by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Due to the Sovereign status of the global order, these agreements were not a binding, therefore, the industrial powers contributing the most carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases to the environment withdrew from these accords as it did not serve their economic interests. The major global contributors of the CO 2 emissions are given in Figure 4 :

10 most polluted countries as of 2020 [ 17 ].

Figure 4 gives an account for the 10 most polluted countries in the world as of 2020. However, China remains leading in that aspect in the year 2022 as well. United States remain on second number with 4.4 billion tons of CO 2 emissions, while India is third producing 2.3 billion tons of CO 2 .

According to Figure 5 , the above countries might not appear as the top 10 global CO 2 contributors, but they fall in the top 10 per capita CO 2 contributors, due to their large-scale reliance on oil and small number of populations. United Nations Secretary General Mr Antonio Gutters paid an official visit to Pakistan on 9-10 September 2002 to show solidarity to flood victims and assess the devastations through field visits and official briefings. He stated that the “nature has attacked Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global emissions” [ 19 ] while facing the consequences of developed countries emissions and pollution of climate. He further added that “it was outrageous that action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was being put on the back burner, today it is Pakistan and tomorrow, it could be your country” [ 20 ], pointing toward industrialized countries. The Global Climate Index (GCI) 2021 has also vindicated Pakistan's vulnerabilities to climate risks as shown in Table 1 below, where Pakistan stands number 8 [ 21 ] in the vulnerability Index. The analysis presented highlights the severe impacts of climate change on Pakistan ranging from extreme heat and drought to dreadful floods. [ 22 ].

10 most polluting countries per capita 2022 [ 18 ].

Global climate index 2021 [ 22 ].

3.2. Examination of Water Calamities in Pakistan

Water is an essential need for ecosystem and human life. In recent times, it has been a growing concern that “precious blue” is becoming inadequate resource for future of human survival [ 23 ]. The amount of fresh water has remained constant on Earth surface since last 100 years; however, the access to water resources is unbalanced [ 24 ] with the rapid population growth, urbanization, and deforestation. Similarly, other issues, such as technological waste, growing industrialization, global warming, and climate change, all are among the key contributing factors for extreme water scarcity [ 25 ]. Although the water scarcity has emerged as a global challenge today, it has severely hit the underdeveloped countries like Pakistan with serious implications on all sectors. Pakistan stands among top 10 severely “high water risk countries” with agriculture as most affected sector [ 26 ]. Moreover, roughly 80% of the population is facing grave shortage of water during at least 1 month in a year which is very alarming. Under scarce surface water, ground water resources (last resort to water supply) are being over utilized. If appropriate measures are not initiated in time with “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approach, the situation would get worse in time to come and the entire country will face the severe crises of water scarcity by 2025, by most projections “Pakistan could run dry” [ 27 ]. The evolving situation has serious implications on the national security of Pakistan, as it will create challenges for sustainable agriculture production which contributes around 23% of Pakistan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and creates job opportunities for around 42% of population [ 28 ]. According to the report published by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Pakistan ranks 14th out of 17 very high-risk countries affected by water scarcity, as more than 1/3rd of available water is wasted due to bad management [ 29 ]. Since 1962, after the formalization of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with India, per inhabitant water availability has plummeted from 5229 cubic meters to about 1187 in 2017, which is continuously on the downward slide [ 30 ]. The latest UN report on Pakistan's growing population indicates that by 2050, the population is likely to exceed 366 million [ 31 ], which will compound the water demand, which is predicted to reach 274-million-acre feet (MAF) by 2025 against available water supply of 191 MAF. This demand and supply gap would continue to grow year on year basis due to growing population and bad water management [ 32 ]. Figure 6 shows graphical representation of expected water situation in Pakistan by 2025 viz-a-viz the population [ 33 ].

Water availability in Pakistan by 2025 taken from Dr Muhammad Ashraf's research report.

3.3. Analysis on Flood Devastations in Pakistan in Year 2022

Most of Pakistan's economy is dependent on the agricultural sector; however, the industrial sector also contributes a great deal to the economic growth of Pakistan. The growing population is directly impacting the environment as the number of vehicles on roads and the number of industries to accommodate these individuals will also increase. The population of Pakistan at the time of independence was 32.5 million; however, as per the 2021 census, the population has increased to 225 million. Although, Pakistan remains significantly low on the global CO 2 emissions list, yet the effects of global warming have reached Pakistan in a sweeping manner [ 34 ]. The issue that industrialized countries failed to realize that the environment does not belong to a single country and when one country damages the ozone layer, the entire world would pay the price for that. The year 2022 was one such year for Pakistan when the effects of climate change brought heavy rainfalls in Pakistan resulting in major loss of lives, infrastructural damage, and massive economic losses to the tune of US$ 30 billion [ 35 ]. The NASA issued satellite imagery on the flood situation in Pakistan, which is given in Figure 7 .

NASA satellite imagery of floods in Pakistan, September 01, 2022.

Torrential rainfall and flooding have wreaked havoc across Pakistan killing over 1600 people including children and destroying infrastructure. According to statement given by Sherry Rehman Minister for Climate Change: “One third of the country is literally under water, a catastrophe of unknown precedent” The data are given in Table 2 and Figure 8 . Therefore, the devastating floods caused by unprecedented impact of climate change have hit Pakistan the most this year seriously impacting all the sectors of economy and society [ 36 ].

Flood devastation in Swat (KPK) and Baluchistan.

Province wise loss suffered because of heavy rain fall [ 36 ].

3.4. Analysis on Drinking Water Quality in Pakistan

The quality of available drinking water in Pakistan is in a dreadful state. Both surface and subsurface water sources are contaminated and disease prone [ 37 ] in major cities as well as rural areas. In the overall context, per capita the availability of water is decreasing precipitously in Pakistan, and the country is ranked as “water stressed” country and fast heading toward “water scarce” country in coming few years [ 38 ]. The evolving situation also creates challenges for availability of water for agricultural production, and daily usage requirements, therefore intensifying the human security issues in Pakistan [ 39 ]. Water pollution is the most common word today in Pakistan, which can be ascribed to numerous aspects affecting quality of available water [ 40 ]. The common causes are an upsurge in the atmospheric temperatures, with an inbuilt tendency to take heat to the threshold of drinking water, microbes, organic chemicals, nutrients, and heavy metals [ 41 ] . The research findings have discovered other factors as well affecting water quality, which include surface debris, sporadic water supply, improper discharge of water supply, proximity of sewage water to drinking water lines, industrial waste which has now become very common in almost all major cities in Pakistan, discharge of untreated sewage water and highly incompetent technical workers and service providers on water disposal projects [ 42 ]. The pollution of water due to geological and natural factors depends on the presence of different chemicals and their concentration in the geological formations in selected areas, while anthropogenic pollution is caused by extensive use of herbicides and pesticides, coal mining, oil refining, careless disposal of garbage, and septic tanks [ 43 ]. Because of such developments, fresh drinking water is available to hardly 20% of population, while 80% population is content with drinking of contaminated water [ 44 ]. The recent floods have further aggravated the situation as vast swaths of land in Pakistan is still under water, which is now contaminated causing several health issues. The ongoing situation has also impurified subsurface drinking water due to seepage of contaminated flood water deep in Earth, and government's inability for effective disposal of sewage water.

3.5. Water Security

Food and energy security is directly influenced by water security for agrarian society like Pakistan, which contributes more than 23% in national GDP. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan as it employs more than 40 million population and guarantor of breadbasket of the country. Therefore, “the loss of major river systems in the past had a domino effect on the thriving civilizations, which became extinct one after the other” [ 45 ]. Pakistan is transitioning from water strained country with declining “per capita fresh drinking water, which is less than 1800 cubic meters per year (m 3 /y) to water scarce country (per capita less than 1000 m 3 /y)” projected by 2035 [ 46 ]. Similarly, river water also receding to 800 m 3 /y is expected in 2026 due to growing population. Therefore, “water security is emerging threat for Pakistan” [ 47 ]. Pakistan is a lower riparian state reliant on the nature and other countries for river's water. India has constructed more than fifty big and small dams on the rivers coming to Pakistan, which are a constant source of irritation in the bilateral relations and vital for Pakistan's water and energy security. Similarly, Afghanistan is also considering construction of dams on Kabul River, which is likely to create two front dilemmas for Pakistan. The situation is even challenging when viewed in the context of availability of only two major dams in Pakistan, Tarbela, and Mangla which were constructed in late 1960s and 1970s; however, “their capacities are reducing due to silting.” While construction of new dams is highly politicized, charged with massive outrage from political parties and masses, therefore, not likely to happen in near future. It is expected that the availability of less water is likely to increase food shortages and create conflict among the federating units and the federation. Similarly, the negative impacts of climate change can cause melting glaciers and unusual pattern of rains, which may lead to flooding as we are witnessing in year 2022.

3.6. Food Security

The Indus Basin, which is the bedrock of agriculture support in Pakistan is seriously threatened by the negative impacts of climate change. The changing weather patterns may result in the reduction of crops yield “(15–20% in cereals) and livestock (20–30%)” [ 48 ], impacting negatively the dairy and poultry as the agriculture and livestock sectors are the “backbone of Pakistan's economy, which contributes 23% to GDP and accounts 60% exports of country” [ 49 ]. The food security is vulnerable to climate change due to reduction in crops and adversarial influences on livestock. Reduced water in real harvesting season is changing the crops patterns and the lands are vulnerable to droughts and flooding as well, which also create massive migrations. The devastations of ongoing floods have created serious food shortages in Pakistan and inflation is also all time high. Pakistan's Prime Minister has already rung the alarm bells by stating that Pakistan is vulnerable to serious food shortage, and it is feared that essential food items may be imported this year and next year as all cultivable lands are under water [ 50 ].

3.7. Implications of Climate Change on the National Mosaic of Pakistan

3.7.1. competition over water resources.

Agriculture-based economies are heavily dependent on the natural resources of the state. This is extremely critical situation for the state to cope with the needs of the masses and economic challenges when there is a scarcity of sustainable renewable and nonrenewable resources. Countries like Pakistan where socioeconomic challenges, such as rising population, lack of political will, internal security issues, urbanization, lack of public policies for managing population, and natural resources are growing at a faster pace as compared with its economic growth. Even the geographical position of the state near the equator is unable to supplement its growing needs and demands. It is an alarming situation for the Pakistan that in the presence of other socioeconomic challenges, the drastic impacts of climate change have also increased its economic and political challenges, while the insufficiency of water reservoirs is creating serious concerns of inter-provincial disharmony. The rising population has not only affected the quantity of water reservoirs but has also depleted the quality in the same manner. The increase in anthropogenic activities is causing water stress on natural reservoirs, while since independence in 1947, the country is facing persistent decline in the availability of water year on year basis due to multitude of factors examined above. According to the estimates of Mr. Jamshed Iqbal Cheema, Chairman Pakistan Agriculture Scientists Association (PASA), in 1947, the capita water availability was 5600 cubic meters, which decreased by 406% from 5260 cubic meters in 1951 to 1038 cubic meters in 2010 and 877 cubic meters in 2020. The PASA estimates that available water will further deplete by 2025 to a level of 660 cubic meters and by 2050 will reach 575 cubic meters as shown in Figure 9 below [ 51 ].

Per capita availability of water reservoirs in Pakistan [ 52 ].

The causes of water shortages in Pakistan exist in two types: (a) incidental causes related to poor water management policies at local level, (b) operational causes include the political conflicts (over the water resources on provincial/institutional level) and the societal differences over water management and distribution. Water issue is not only related with the environmental degradation, but also linked with the social factors as abnormal population growth causes a rise in demand of clean water resources, disturbance of equilibrium between communities, provinces, and water resources distribution. As Pakistan consists of multiple ethnicities and diversified geographical terrain but competition over the access of water resources has often created tensions and conflicts among the federating units. The growing vulnerabilities of communities over the insufficiency of water reservoirs promote lawlessness, antistate sentiments and sense of deprivation among its own nationals. Due to lack of strong monitoring mechanism over channelization of available water, for creating a balanced approach between demand and supply of available water, the population is incentivized for illegal water proliferation. The tacit approval from the water management departments has resulted in water theft cases mostly in Southern Punjab and interior Sindh, as there are many illegal drillings, hidden pipelines, and unrecorded water connections from main supply lines. Such illegal water channels mostly exist adjacent to sanitation systems in cities and rural areas, contaminating the available water. The increase in anthropogenic activities is also causing water stress on natural reservoirs.

Another reason of growing water scarcity is unlawful construction and sanitation systems near or over the water channels, which continuously contaminate water, especially during floods blend these altogether. The role of administration is highly crucial in this matter to control such catastrophic constructions and lessen the pressure on water consumption. The unprotected constructions along rivers, lakes, and streams often cause blockage of natural water channels particularly in monsoon and rainy season resulting into loss of lives, roads network, and infrastructure damage as the enormity of flood damages to clean water channels is immeasurable. In 2010 floods, Pakistan witnessed unimaginable losses as around 20 million people were victims, 1.7 million died, 436 healthcare centers were devastated, 80% food reserves were smashed, 2.9 million households were severely damaged, nearly 1.1 million houses were damaged and $ 9.7 billion economic loss in 135 districts. While the issues of accessing the safe water channels was still in demand after flood (96.8% before vs 96.7%). In year 2022 floods, these losses have increased manifolds and caused unprecedented damages to natural water resources. Around 33 million people are direct victims, death troll rising above 1500, while 110 district of Baluchistan (Quetta, Pishin, Killa Saifullah, Nushki, Jaffarabad, and Washuk), Punjab (Koh e Suleman ranges, Rajanpur, D. G Khan), Sindh (Mirpur Khas, Thatta, Sajawal, and Shaheed Benazir Abad) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Swat and lower/upper Dir) are declared as most calamity hit areas. While 30% water channels are severely affected, and 63% flood victims are struggling for sufficient clean water channels. The economic losses suffered have been estimated to the tune of US$ 30 billion. The analyses amply highlight the insufficiency of available water and demand, compounded by adverse effects of floods during this year.

3.7.2. Negative Impact on Agriculture Sector

Pakistan is heavily relying on agricultural sector for its international exports and domestic food demands, but in the presence of water crisis and conventional irrigation system for its agricultural production, the country will face severe challenges of water scarcity in times to come. According to Global Food and Security Index 2021, Pakistan ranked 80 out of 113 countries [ 53 ] and Global Food and Security Index 2022, it has further slipped by four numbers and now ranks 84 out of 113 countries [ 54 ]. Pakistan lags behind all South Asian countries in food insecurity. The lack of progress in agricultural sector is also linked with the mismanagement of land and water resources, unsatisfactory policies of water governance, exponential population growth, and the negative impacts of climate change. Pakistan has also failed to adopt new strategies like advanced water management in agricultural sector, usage of adaptation methods in yields productions to enhance water consumption in eco-friendly manner, educate farmers about the water recycling and water productivity techniques. While water scarcity is a highly charged political issue in Pakistan as there is a turf war between the provinces and the federation. However, Punjab government took good initiative and introduced national water policy of Pakistan to ensure regularization of water governance system in the country. In the presence of fragile agriculture sector development, climate degradation impacts have worsened the livelihood and yield production. Therefore, on a year-on-year basis, the agriculture yield is squeezing, demand of water is increasing, and unplanned urbanization is resulting into loss of precious agriculture land. The overall impact of these issues is creating negative repercussions on agriculture production and aggravating food security situation in Pakistan.

3.7.3. Water Quality and Public Health Risks

The availability of clean drinking water is biggest national security challenge for Pakistan today. The water proliferation and loss of water supply sources from government record is not only raising the administrative issues but also causing multiple public health problems. The contamination of water along with the presence of sanitary pipelines expose the population with the contagious and chronic diseases like diarrhea, cholera, jaundice, typhoid, hepatitis C, liver cancer, and gastrointestinal infections. The water scarcity in Pakistan has enormous impact on health care system as well as the country is struggling with the diseases that are almost nonexistential in developed countries. The significant findings of this study are that in Pakistan, 50% diseases spread through contaminated water and provide most suitable medium of spread and transfer various bacterial and viral infections from human to human or animals to human as the country is facing the 40% of mortality rate caused by the contaminated water intake, while the frontline victims of waterborne diseases are pregnant women, newly born babies, and early teenage groups. It is also important to note that the primary source of water in Pakistan is sub-surface water channels, which over a period have become the hub of different variants of pathogens. According to World Health Organization (WHO) report, approximately, 2.5 million deaths occur annually in Pakistan from widespread diarrheal diseases caused by bacterial and protozoan agents present in inferior quality of drinking water. Around 80% population is exposed to unsafe water as UNICEF Pakistan has also shared the alarming fact that the well-being and health standards of youngsters are at risk; therefore, each year, 53,000 children under the age of 5 years lose their lives due to unhygienic water as 70% of household work and domestic usage of water in Pakistan is dependent on bacterial water sources. The floods of 2022 have compounded the problems of availability and access to clean drinking water. The field visits to rural and urban Sindh, KPK, and Baluchistan vindicated scarcity and contamination of drinking water, which has been reported by several NGOs and media as well. The stagnant water has been contaminated due to mixing of sewage water and created ideal breading grounds for bacteria causing serious health risks. Nonavailability of compatible medical support, inaccessibility, and nondisposal of flood water have created many health risks and entire population in affected areas is vulnerable to adverse effects of contaminated water. In most areas, the disposal of flood water is left to the nature and the government agencies have demonstrated inability to manage it, therefore, spread of waterborne diseases will continue for prolonged period in future.

4. Policy Recommendations

4.1. legislation for interministerial coordination.

The ministry of climate change should take a lead role and coordinate with all the provinces on the issues of water security. All related agencies and departments should work in harmony with this ministry for synergetic response. Similarly, international engagements would be essential component for successful policy implementation; therefore, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Climate Change should remove overlaps and avoid duplications wherever required.

4.2. Proper Enforcement of Legislation

“Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord 1991” highlights the judicious distribution of Indus River System (IRS) water among the federating units of Pakistan. However, this accord was unable to deal with the conflicts arising due to unfair distribution of water at times. To resolve this issue, “Indus River System Authority” (IRSA) was established in 1992 [ 55 ], through an act of Parliament to work as an institution for Indus water resources regulation and monitoring in Pakistan. However, the problems related to fair water distribution, monitoring and installation system, and the treatment plants lagged during the implementation phase. There always remained issues between Punjab and Sindh regarding unfair water theft. Despite establishment of “Council of Common Interest” (CCI) to resolve the grievances of provinces, but issues persist due to weak implementation mechanism and weak governance. The devolution of power under 18th amendment of the constitution, devolved the water distribution among the rural and urban areas of each province as an internal matter of the provinces; however, water crises remain at large seriously impacting inter-provincial harmony. The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) is assigned the task of ensuring clean drinking water across Pakistan. Implementation of water-related policies requires a great deal of realization and urgency on the part of the political elites of Pakistan. The gravity of the issue needs to be addressed as a national emergency, otherwise, Pakistan is vulnerable to water scarcity situations normally witnessed in African continent.

4.3. Judicious Distribution of Water

Being a lower riparian, Sindh is often complaining about the water shortage, especially in the pre-monsoon period each year. The claims made by Sindh government at numerous occasions regarding Punjab stealing its share of water have been denied by Indus River System Authority (IRSA). After the 18th amendment, the allocation of resources to the provinces has been ensured to be judicious; however, the internal distribution of these resources to the rural and urban areas is the responsibility of the provinces. The IRSA is mandated to address, regulate, and develop standard operating procedures (SOPs) for water allocation to the provinces. Regrettably, each province has its own peculiarities in terms of agricultural needs and population, therefore, making the interpretation and implementation of the accord more difficult. To resolve water distribution issues on sustainable basis, the “whole of government approach” is recommended along with on-site consultative visits by the representatives of provincial and federal governments and political leaders for expeditious resolution of conflicting issues. Creating unnecessary fault lines is detrimental to national integration, which should be avoided at all costs.

4.4. Water Treatment Plants and Recycling of Water

Pakistan is in dire need of installing treatment plants as every year, hospitals are flooded with patients, both adults and children suffering from diseases resulting from contaminated water. People living in both urban and rural areas are exposed to contagions and microbial bacteria, which enter the body through water, unsafe for drinking. Not everyone in Pakistan can afford bottled water, therefore, it is the responsibility of the state to provide its citizens with safe drinking water. As we know that Pakistan receives a major portion of heavy rains between the months of July to September, where majority of rainwater ends up in rivers, ponds, while the rest of it results in heavy floods of cities and inhabitants. The government through installation of treatment plants can filter clean drinking water for ensuring public health. Similarly, more wastewater recycling plants are the need of time, which should be installed at priority. In rural areas, wastewater treatment is almost nonexistent, leading to pollution of surface and groundwater [ 56 ]. The government should pay instantaneous attention to the evolving challenges of treatment of wastewater for sparing clean water for drinking purposes and balanced delivery of recycled water to other uses like irrigation.

4.5. Climate Emergency and Disaster Response Mechanism

Pakistan was successful in convincing the world leaders during recently concluded United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) sessions about vulnerabilities to climate risks and the unprecedented impact during year 2022. UN Secretary General Antoni Guterres and US President Joe Biden personally appealed for help for Pakistan to alleviate the suffering and quick rehabilitation of flood victims. It is suggested that Pakistan should consider climate diplomacy as an urgent priority and initiate the process of engagement at bilateral and multilateral levels with developed countries to reduce the vulnerabilities and risks of climate change. Additionally, the disaster response mechanism also needs to be re-energized with strong interagency coordination. The existing structure of national and provincial disaster management authorities should be reinforced through capacity building and professional training. Appropriate equipment for rescue and relief operations also needs to be provided at vulnerable sites for immediate response to save maximum lives. The infrastructure development in flood affected areas should be expedited for which essential resources should be mobilized well in time. Such preparations should be done and rehearsed every year during pre-monsoon season for synergetic and a befitting response to minimize reaction time and save maximum lives.

5. Conclusion

Climate change is the evolving global threat, and Pakistan is most vulnerable from its negative impacts. The year 2022 witnessed extreme drought on one hand, followed by unusual floods over the short span of 2-3 months. Therefore, for Pakistan, alarm bells are ringing to take the holistic stock of situation by declaring climate emergency and adopt “whole of nation” and “whole of government” approaches for a comprehensive response ensuring strong interagency cooperation and capitalizing on the synergetic application of all Elements of National Power (EoNP) for optimum results. It is essential to integrate the respective departments under the umbrella of national and provincial disaster response agencies for harmonious functioning, coordination, and execution. There is dire need to create strong national realization to “conserve, preserve, and proportionally distribute existing water resources” [ 57 ]. Moreover, smart means for spending agriculture water and recycling of water for uses other than drinking would be helpful as such practices have been adopted by most of developed countries. The construction of more water reservoirs is the need of time and current floods across Pakistan are the testimony of this fact. It is felt that this study shall help the relevant government ministries as an academic policy input for addressing water security issues in Pakistan on sustainable basis.

Data Availability

Conflicts of interest.

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Climate Change Profile of Pakistan

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This country profile provides a comprehensive overview of climate change science and policy in Pakistan, drawing insights from national and international literature.

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Catastrophic floods, droughts, and cyclones have plagued Pakistan in recent years. The 2010 flood killed 1,600 people and caused around $10 billion in damage. The 2015 Karachi heat wave led to the death of more than 1,200 people. Climate change-related natural hazards may increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades. Climatic changes are expected to have wide-ranging impacts on Pakistan, affecting agricultural productivity, water availability, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events. Addressing these risks requires climate change to be mainstreamed into national strategy and policy. The profile covers (i) historical and future expected trends of climate change at provincial level, (ii) expected climate impacts on priority sectors, (iii) the institutional and policy frameworks to address climate change, (iv) climate finance sources, and (v) opportunities for adaptation.

• Climate Change Trends and Impacts
• Institutional Arrangements for Climate Change
• Climate Finance Landscape of Pakistan
• Climate Change Adaptation Technologies in Pakistan
• ADB Initiatives in Pakistan and their Exposure to Climate Change Risks

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Climate change likely increased intense rainfall in Pakistan: study

Human-caused climate change likely increased the intense rainfall that flooded large parts of Pakistan, according to rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists as part of the World Weather Attribution group. Extreme rainfall in the region has increased 50-75% and some climate models suggest this increase could be entirely due to human-caused climate change, although there are considerable uncertainties in the results.  The Government estimates that around 33 million people across the country are affected by the rains, floods and impacts such as landslides, killing at least 1,100 people and destroying infrastructure, homes, agricultural land and livestock.

Human-caused climate change likely increased the intense rainfall that flooded large parts of Pakistan, according to rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists as part of the World Weather Attribution group. Extreme rainfall in the region has increased 50-75% and some climate models suggest this increase could be entirely due to human-caused climate change, although there are considerable uncertainties in the results.  

The Government estimates that around 33 million people across the country are affected by the rains, floods and impacts such as landslides, killing at least 1,100 people and destroying infrastructure, homes, agricultural land and livestock. The human and socio-economic toll is expected to increase as flood levels continue to rise, with immense pressure on the country's dams. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) launched a flash appeal  on 30 August for US $160.3 million to help victims of the monsoon flooding.  More than 70 districts were declared “calamity hit” by the government of Pakistan.

“[We] have all seen media images of the extraordinary destruction. I can only imagine the power and ferocity of the water as it bore down on villages, roads, bridges and everything else in its path. It was clearly terrifying – a wall of water,” UN Secretary Antonio Guterres said during a visit to the country on 9-10 September . “No country deserves this fate, but particularly not countries like Pakistan that have done almost nothing to contribute to global warming.”

The Pakistan Meteorological Department said that it was the wettest August since records began in 1961. National rainfall was 243 percent above average. In the province of Balochistan, it was +590 percent and in Sindh +726%, according to the monthly report. The Indus river, which runs the length of the country, burst its banks across thousands of square kilometres, while the intense local rainfall also led to urban flash floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods. 

World Weather Attribution study

To quantify the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall, the World Weather Attribution scientists analysed weather data and computer simulations to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2°C of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods. The researchers focused on two aspects of the event: the 60-day period of heaviest rainfall over the Indus river basin between June and September, and the 5-day period of heaviest rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan.

Fahad Saeed, Researcher at the Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Islamabad, Pakistan, said: “Fingerprints of climate change in exacerbating the heatwave earlier this year, and now the flooding, provide conclusive evidence of Pakistan’s vulnerability to such extremes."

The scientists found that modern climate models are not fully able to simulate monsoon rainfall in the Indus river basin, as the region is located at the western edge of the monsoon and its rainfall pattern is extremely variable from year to year. Consequently, they could not quantify the influence of climate change as accurately as has been possible in other studies of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall in areas with less variability and more reliable models. For the 5-day total rainfall, some models suggest that climate change increased the 5-day total rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan by up to 50%. This is in-line with recent IPCC assessments projecting more intense rains in the region and with historical weather records which show that these heavy rainfall episodes have increased 75% in the region in the last few decades. There were large uncertainties in climate modelling of maximum 60-day rainfall in the Indus basin, meaning the scientists were not able to estimate the influence of climate change on this aspect of the rainfall. 

Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science at the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, said: “ What we saw in Pakistan is exactly what climate projections have been predicting for years. It’s also in line with historical records showing that heavy rainfall has dramatically increased in the region since humans started emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. And our own analysis also shows clearly that further warming will make these heavy rainfall episodes even more intense."

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has issued repeated accurate warnings about rainfall, flooding and landslides, using WMO Flash Flood Guidance System warning products in in addition to national and regional analysis to disseminate to the relevant national stakeholders as well as to the local population. The National Disaster Management Authority is also issuing regular updates on river flood. Without these warnings, the death toll would most likely have been even higher.

WMO has also provided briefings and forecasts to the humanitarian sector and joins the rest of the international community in offering condolences.

In a video message, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that “the people of Pakistan face the unrelenting impact of heavy rains and flooding – worst in decades. The scale of needs is rising like the flood waters. It requires the world’s collective and prioritized attention.”

At the ceremony to launch the appeal, Pakistan’s Minister for Planning Ahsan Iqbal highlighted that “Pakistan being a negligible contributor to the overall carbon footprint, is still among the top ten countries that are vulnerable to climate change, and with extreme weather events which we have experienced from earlier this year like the heat waves, forest fires, multiple glacial lake-outburst-floods and now these disastrous monsoon floods.”

In March to May this year, Pakistan was gripped by a devastating heatwave, which impacted water supplies, health, agricultural output and the economy, and caused rapid glacier melt. A rapid attribution survey said climate change made the extreme heat 30 times more likely .

August rainfall

The number of rainy days is also much higher than normal at most stations in Sindh and Balochistan as well as in northern regions such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan provinces. For example, In Sindh, various stations received 10-17 days of rainfall, compared to the 1-3 normal rainy days. In addition, many 24-hour historical rainfall record were broken - one particular site at Padidan (Sindh province) reported 1228 mm monthly rainfall (as of 30 August) compared to the average monthly rainfall of 46 mm. The same station also reported 355 mm of rain in 24-hour on 19 August.

Many areas in southern Pakistan are already under water. The recent flooding in north Pakistan, especially in the mountainous Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, threatens to aggravate the flood crisis  in the coming days and weeks.

The National Disaster Management Agency is issuing daily situation reports on monsoon flooding on its website . The River Kabul flow at Nowshera has seen the highest inflow in recent years. This is based on river flow charts from the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s Flood Forecasting Division.

UN agencies warned that the flooding disaster would have lasting and widespread repercussions – for instance on the large refugee population, on health facilities and vaccination campaigns. Livelihoods are also being heavily impacted – more than 719,000 livestock – a critical source of sustenance and livelihoods for many families – have died, of which some 69 per cent are in Balochistan and 28 per cent in Punjab. Around 2 million acres of crops and orchards have also been affected to date, of which 304,475 acres are in Balochistan, 178,186 acres in Punjab and around 1.54 million acres in Sindh, according to OCHA’s Response Plan issued on 30 Aug.

Pakistan is no stranger to disastrous floods. Devastating floods in 2010 caused massive destruction and loss of life due mainly to very heavy rains in north of Pakistan which caused firstly flash floods and then riverine flooding from north to south Pakistan. 

The ongoing disaster demonstrates once again the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation. It also highlights the importance of  WMO’s drive to ensure universal access to early warnings which drive Anticipatory Action through the UN Alerts for all initiative and its integrated flood management and flash flood guidance  tools.  Anticipatory Action, alongside an understanding of forecast uncertainty is proven to be highly effective, providing life saving benefits to communities around the world.

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Poverty, Gender, and Youth

Climate change, resilience, and population dynamics in pakistan: a case study of the 2010 floods in mianwali district.

Zeba Sathar , Population Council Muhammad Khalil , Population Council Sabahat Hussain , Population Council Maqsood Sadiq , Population Council Kiren Khan

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In 2010, Pakistan experienced massive flooding that went on uninterrupted for more than eight weeks, and seriously affected more than 20 million people. This study explores the effects of the floods on one of the most adversely affected districts, Mianwali, in Punjab province. The study focuses on four areas pertaining to resilience: movements and migration processes; shifts in poverty levels and living conditions; changes in livelihood activities; and health-seeking behavior, particularly fertility-related processes. This study highlights the need to include demographic and health information in the analysis of natural disasters. The report marks the beginning of a research agenda that can capitalize on data from the Population Census, the Agriculture Census, and other sources to build a national overview of how climate change is affecting people, livelihoods, and health, in Pakistan.

10.31899/pgy7.1013

Recommended Citation

Sathar, Zeba, Muhammad Khalil, Sabahat Hussain, Maqsood Sadiq, and Kiren Khan. 2018. "Climate change, resilience, and population dynamics in Pakistan: A case study of the 2010 floods in Mianwali District." Islamabad: Population Council.

Climate Change Vulnerability and Resilience in Pakistan; Population, Environmental Risks, and the Climate Crisis (PERCC); Evaluating the Complex Relationships Between Social and Natural Systems

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Impact of climate change on electricity demand: a case study of Pakistan

Research output : Contribution to journal › Article › Research › peer-review

The energy sector is sensitive to changing weather patterns and Pakistan is one of those countries where temperature rise induced by climate change is expected to be above the world average. In this backdrop the present study aims at finding the impact of climate change on electricity demand in Pakistan at the regional and national level. Using monthly data on temperatures to find heating and cooling degree days, the relationship between monthly electricity demand and temperature is explored which is then used to find the impact of projected climate change on electricity demand. The results suggest surging peak loads in summer season due to climatic effect which calls for capacity instalments over and above that needed to cater to rise in electricity demand attributable to economic growth.

• Climate change
• Degree days
• Electricity demand

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• 10.30541/v55i1pp.29-47 Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

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T1 - Impact of climate change on electricity demand

T2 - a case study of Pakistan

AU - Mahmood, Rafat

AU - Saleemi, Sundus

AU - Amin, Sajid

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Pakistan Development Review.

PY - 2016/3/1

Y1 - 2016/3/1

N2 - The energy sector is sensitive to changing weather patterns and Pakistan is one of those countries where temperature rise induced by climate change is expected to be above the world average. In this backdrop the present study aims at finding the impact of climate change on electricity demand in Pakistan at the regional and national level. Using monthly data on temperatures to find heating and cooling degree days, the relationship between monthly electricity demand and temperature is explored which is then used to find the impact of projected climate change on electricity demand. The results suggest surging peak loads in summer season due to climatic effect which calls for capacity instalments over and above that needed to cater to rise in electricity demand attributable to economic growth.

AB - The energy sector is sensitive to changing weather patterns and Pakistan is one of those countries where temperature rise induced by climate change is expected to be above the world average. In this backdrop the present study aims at finding the impact of climate change on electricity demand in Pakistan at the regional and national level. Using monthly data on temperatures to find heating and cooling degree days, the relationship between monthly electricity demand and temperature is explored which is then used to find the impact of projected climate change on electricity demand. The results suggest surging peak loads in summer season due to climatic effect which calls for capacity instalments over and above that needed to cater to rise in electricity demand attributable to economic growth.

KW - Climate change

KW - Degree days

KW - Electricity demand

KW - Energy

KW - Pakistan

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85041679233&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.30541/v55i1pp.29-47

DO - 10.30541/v55i1pp.29-47

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85041679233

SN - 0030-9729

JO - Pakistan Development Review

JF - Pakistan Development Review

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit

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CR4HC case studies highlight healthcare organizations that have incorporated elements of climate resilience planning in strategic planning, facility operations, and emergency management. The case studies present these organizations’ climate resilience stories, including actions that are highlighted as climate resilience recommendations in the CR4HC toolkit. Like the introductory and recommendations sections of the toolkit, case study content can be viewed on the website, or downloaded as separate PDF documents.

Indian Health Service (IHS) Sacred Oaks Healing Center | Davis, CA

INTRODUCTION Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre is a dedicated research institute for climate change studies in Pakistan. The Centre is mandated for national level R&D effort, capacity building, policy analysis, information dissemination and assistance to national planners and policymakers on issues related to past and projected future climatic changes in the country, their likely impacts on the key socio-economic sectors of the country such as water, food, agriculture, energy, forestry, health, and ecology, and appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures. RESEARCH AREAS PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS IMPACTS, ADAPTATION & VULNERABILITY MITIGATION & CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY 4 April, 2024 The GCISC extends a warm welcome to the Honorable Ms. Romina Khurshid in her new role as the coordinator to the Prime Minister on Climate Change and Environmental Coordination. We are enthusiastic about your dedication to addressing climate change challenges and eagerly anticipate working with your kind support. 24 March, 2024 Mr. Aizaz A. Dar's appointment as Secretary of the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination is welcomed by the Centre. He will also serve as Vice-Chair of the Board of Governors of GCISC. It is hoped that under his dynamic leadership, GCISC will flourish and continue to provide science-based insights for policymaking and climate action. GCISC and GIZ jointly organize a workshop to launch National and Provincial Climate Risk Profiles and CLimate Information Resource (CIR) Portal under SAR Project at Ramada Hotel on March 20, 2024. © 2020 GCISC Copyrights reserved www.sifc.gov.pk Content Search Climate induced migration in pakistan: global discourse, local realities and governance. Islamic Relief Attachments Executive Summary Climate change itself may not discriminate between the rich and the poor or on the basis of gender, age, race, or disability, but global political, economic, and social institutions can, and do, exacerbate the impacts of climate change on specific disadvantaged segments of society all over the globe, especially in the Global South. The disastrous summer of 2021 was yet another eye opener for the global community to witness the consequences of climate inaction, and it was but a portent of what humanity can face in the coming decades if immediate and dramatic steps are not taken to cut carbon emissions and restore ecosystems. Pakistan continues to be among the top ten countries most vulnerable to climate change in the Global Climate Risk Index. In 2020, the country took the fifth spot on the list.² High rising temperatures, increased intensity and frequency of weather related disasters and events, melting of the glaciers in the North (especially Himalayan glaciers) and increased the variability of monsoon rains are high degree impacts being faced by the country. Pakistan is subject to a vast array of natural and man-made assisted hazards, which have caused numerous waves of internal displacement and internal migration. An approximate of three million people in Pakistan are affected by natural catastrophes every year, which equates to almost 1.6 per cent of the total population of the country.³ The Indus delta, which is the 5th largest delta in the world and a designated Ramsar wetland of Pakistan, has shrunk by 92 per cent⁴ in the past two decades and more than 1.2 million people have migrated from the delta towards the mega city Karachi.⁵ Pakistan also has the highest rate of urbanisation in South Asia and the UNFP division estimates that nearly half of the country’s population will be living in urban cities by 2025.⁶ This research is a first in the series of studies aimed at generating highly critical debate on the increasing phenomenon of climate induced migration, based on evidence from the field. This particular research aims to highlight and acknowledge the presence of climate induced migrants in Pakistan. It makes arguments towards convincing the global community for the need to protect and facilitate migrant communities by adopting tailor-made strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. As reflected in this study, climate change and migration are highly correlated, and it is imperative that we confront this link as several studies forecast that mass human displacements are expected to take place in the 21st century. Climate impacts, both rapid and slow onset, are compounded by a wide range of factors including social, economic, political, and even cultural aspects within a community, which may compel migration. Unplanned and forced migration in a country like Pakistan, with a population of over 200 million, all targeted towards the capital cities and already stressed urban centers will further compound climate risks. A warmer climate has now become inevitable, but how we respond to climate change will determine the magnitude of the costs and consequences that we will face. The rise in global temperatures has already had observable impacts on the environment. The predictions that scientists had made around global climate change in the past are now coming true: glaciers are shrinking, ice caps, sea ice and frozen rivers are breaking up earlier than they are supposed to, sea level is rising, droughts and floods have intensified, animals and bird species are migrating and so are humans. According to IPCC, climate change threatens to continue to rise the global temperatures between 2.5 to 10 degree Fahrenheit over the next century⁷ which compels us to ask key questions regarding the environment, climate change and human mobility. The first set of questions are those that governments and policymakers in countries of origin should be asking with regards to the causes, scale, and pattern of movement: Who is migrating? When and where are they migrating from? Where are they migrating to? What are the unique push factors for migrating? What are the deciding factors for settling at a new destination? Are they crossing borders or traveling within their country of origin? Is migration temporary or permanent? Is migration forced? The second set of questions are those that world leaders and policy influencers should be addressing: How can global legal frameworks cater specifically to the needs of climate induced migrants? Are the countries which are most vulnerable to climate change impacts being highlighted and provided with financial, development and adaptation assistance, since most of these countries are, after all, developing countries? How are nations preparing to meet the remapping of the world’s population that climate change threatens? This study reflects on one of the extreme consequences of climate change which is climate induced migration. It highlights some of the most dominating global perspectives and arguments around the causes and characteristics of climate change induced migration, which act as barriers in the constitution of public policies and international laws. It also highlights the need for investment in climate solutions that are desperately needed to protect the lives and dignity of people around the world, especially the ones disproportionately impacted by climate change. This study also makes comparisons between popular global perspectives and field realities by studying incidences of movements in three distinct regions of Pakistan, by presenting case studies that reflect upon variables that are rarely seen in climate induced migration analyses. These include not only socio-economic constructions but also political, religious, cultural factors that play crucial roles in an individual/ family’s migration decisions. The breakdown of the study is as follows: the complexity of the relationship between climate change and migration is highlighted in the first section, which sheds light on the greatness of the challenge globally, and the difficulties encountered in the prediction of the impact and magnitude of future migrations, as well as its appropriate policy responses. Section two presents findings from the literature review on the climate risk, migration, and general country profile of Pakistan. It tries to present a breakdown of the climate-migration nexus and an understanding of how climate change likely affects migration patterns within Pakistan. It also briefly explains the methodology that was adopted for this research study. Section three breaks down the findings of secondary data analysis on the globally recognized debates on climate induced migration in comparison to the local realities of Pakistan. Section four covers analysis of the primary data collected from respondents belonging to relevant Government departments and stakeholders to highlight the level of planning and response towards climate induced migration in the country. It presents scenarios of CIM and their governance response from three vastly different regions of Pakistan: Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Section five concludes the findings of the study by highlighting how climate change impacts exacerbate the vulnerabilities of already challenged communities, interfering with their way of life - through the damage of ecosystems, sea-level rise or frequent disasters - compelling them to make migration decisions that may not always be their own choice. Policy recommendations are given for Pakistan’s Government and for the global community to take immediate action which includes: inter alia, tailormade interventions depending on specific localities and types of communities, and informed policy responses keeping in view cultural sensitivity and other sacred values of vulnerable communities. Related Content Impact of covid-19 and climate change on public sector primary and elementary school education in the province of sindh, climate crisis in pakistan: voices from the ground. Pakistan + 1 more South Asia’s early heatwave a harbinger of climate change Pakistan: critical corporate initiative: climate response analysis for adaptation (december 2021). Modeling and monitoring cotton production using remote sensing techniques and machine learning: a case study of Punjab, Pakistan Published: 23 August 2024 Cite this article Sher Shah Hasan   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9330-4120 1 , Muhammad Arif Goheer 1 , Muhammad Uzair 2 & Saba Fatima 2   Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy and makes up 24 percent of the national GDP and half the labor force. This makes crop estimation studies extremely vital for a country’s economic growth and food security. Cotton is one of the most important cash crops in Pakistan contributing 2.4% to the total value addition in agriculture. Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques can be used to effectively estimate crop yields even before harvesting. The objective of this study was to utilize RS/GIS, and machine learning to create a model for predicting cotton production; as well as identifying the impacts of climate-related factors on the growth and yield of cotton. Data from MODIS product MOD13A1, with a 16-day temporal resolution from 2011 to 2021 was used to calculate eleven vegetation indices in cotton-dominated districts of Punjab. These indices, along with rainfall data, temperature data, and historical yield data served as input to the machine learning models. Automatic Linear Modeling (ALM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) were used to forecast the yields. The study also created a correlation between climate factors (rainfall and temperature) and cotton seasonal production. Pearson correlation coefficient of − 0.319 indicated a significant influence of maximum temperature on observed yields, while the Automatic Linear Modeling showed both maximum temperature and participation as a predictor for yield. These results underscore the vulnerability of cotton to climate change, proving cotton’s sensitivity to temperature and rainfall. Comparison of both models based on their predictive yield placed ALM model’s accuracy above ANN’s at 44.1%, providing insights into the effectiveness of traditional linear modeling versus neural network approaches in predicting cotton yields. This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access. Access this article Subscribe and save. Get 10 units per month Download Article/Chapter or eBook 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter Cancel anytime Price includes VAT (Russian Federation) Instant access to the full article PDF. Rent this article via DeepDyve Institutional subscriptions Explore related subjects Artificial Intelligence AARI (Ayub Agricultural Research Institute). (2024). Cotton. https://aari.punjab.gov.pk/crop_varieties_cotton . Accessed on February 02, 2024. Adak, S., Bandyopadhyay, K. K., Sahoo, R. N., Mridha, N., Shrivastava, M., & Purakayastha, T. J. (2021). Prediction of wheat yield using spectral reflectance indices under different tillage, residue and nitrogen management practices. Current Science , 121 (3), 402. https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v121/i3/402-413 Agatonovic-Kustrin, S., & Beresford, R. (2000). Basic concepts of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling and its application in pharmaceutical research. Journal of Pharmaceutical and Biomedical Analysis, 22 (5), 717–727. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0731-7085(99)00272-1 Article   CAS   Google Scholar   Akbar, H., & Gheewala, S. H. (2020). Effect of climate change on cash crops yield in Pakistan. Arabian Journal of Geosciences . https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05333-7 Article   Google Scholar   Ali, S. M., Khalid, B., Akhter, A., Islam, A., & Adnan, S. (2020). Analyzing the occurrence of floods and droughts in connection with climate change in Punjab province, Pakistan. Natural Hazards, 103 , 2533–2559. Amin, M., Khan, M. R., Hassan, S. S., Imran, M., Hanif, M., & Baig, I. A. (2023). Determining satellite-based evapotranspiration product and identifying relationship with other observed data in Punjab, Pakistan. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1–17. Bajwa, S. G., Mishra, A. R., & Norman, R. J. (2009). Canopy reflectance response to plant nitrogen accumulation in rice. Precision Agriculture, 11 (5), 488–506. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11119-009-9142-0 Bannari, A., Asalhi, H., & Teillet, P. M. (2002). Transformed difference vegetation index (TDVI) for vegetation cover mapping. In IEEE International geoscience and remote sensing symposium (Vol. 5, pp. 3053–3055). IEEE. Binte Mostafiz, R., Noguchi, R., & Ahamed, T. (2021). Agricultural land suitability assessment using satellite remote sensing-derived soil-vegetation indices. Land, 10 (2), 223. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10020223 Christensen, R. (2020). Variable Selection. Plane Answers to Complex Questions: The Theory of Linear Models . https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32097-3_14 Comtrade, U. (2021). International Trade Statistics Yearbook Volume II-Trade by Commodity. New York: United Nations Statistics Division. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/ https://comtradeapi.un.org/files/v1/app/publicationfiles/2021/VolII2021.pdf . Accessed on February 25, 2024. Córcoles, J. I., Ortega, J. F., Hernández, D., & Moreno, M. A. (2013). Estimation of leaf area index in onion ( Allium cepa L.) using an unmanned aerial vehicle. Biosystems Engineering, 115 (1), 31–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2013.02.002 Crop Reporting Service, Punjab. (2021). Kharif Crops Estimates. https://crs-agripunjab.punjab.gov.pk/system/files/Kharif%20Estimates%202020-2021%20%28PDF%29%20final_0.pdf . Accessed on February 05, 2024. Farrell, M., Gili, A., & Noellemeyer, E. (2018). Spectral indices from aerial images and their relationship with properties of a corn crop. Precision Agriculture, 19 (6), 1127–1137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11119-018-9570-9 Feng, Y., Gong, D., Zhang, Q., Jiang, S., Zhao, L., & Cui, N. (2019). Evaluation of temperature-based machine learning and empirical models for predicting daily global solar radiation. Energy Conversion and Management, 198 , 111780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.111780 Gitelson, A. A. (2004). wide dynamic range vegetation index for remote quantification of biophysical characteristics of vegetation. Journal of Plant Physiology, 161 (2), 165–173. https://doi.org/10.1078/0176-1617-01176 Grassini, P., van Bussel, L. G. J., Van Wart, J., Wolf, J., Claessens, L., Yang, H., Boogaard, H., de Groot, H., van Ittersum, M. K., & Cassman, K. G. (2015). How good is good enough? Data requirements for reliable crop yield simulations and yield-gap analysis. Field Crops Research, 177 , 49–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.03.004 Hassan, S. S., & Goheer, M. A. (2021). Modeling and monitoring wheat crop yield using geospatial techniques: A case study of potohar region, Pakistan. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 49 (6), 1331–1342. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-020-01290-610.1136/bmj.e4483 Hatfield, J. L., Prueger, J. H., Sauer, T. J., Dold, C., O’Brien, P., & Wacha, K. (2019). Applications of vegetative indices from remote sensing to agriculture: Past and future. Inventions, 4 (4), 71. https://doi.org/10.3390/inventions4040071 Huete, A., Didan, K., van Leeuwen, W., Miura, T., & Glenn, E. (2010). MODIS vegetation indices. Land Remote Sensing and Global Environmental Change . https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-6749-7_26 IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute). (2022). Ifpri.org. https://www.ifpri.org/publication/cotton-crop-situational-analysis-pakistan . Ihuoma, S. O., & Madramootoo, C. A. (2019). Sensitivity of spectral vegetation indices for monitoring water stress in tomato plants. 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Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative GIS & RS Vegetation indices Yield predication Find a journal Publish with us Track your research File(s) not publicly available Linking social protection and resilience to climate change: a case study of the conditional cash transfer programme oportunidades in rural yucatan, mexico, ids item types, copyright holder, usage metrics. 248 IMAGES Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile: Pakistan Atmosphere Sustainability The Vulnerability of Pakistan's Water Sector to the Impacts of Climate Too Hot to Live In: Climate Change in Pakistan Climate Change Linked to Pakistan’s Floods, Study Finds COMMENTS Pakistan Case Study Pakistan, located in South Asia, is the fifth most populous country in the world with a population of 231.4 million. 1 The country has a rural population of 63% 2 and GDP per capita of $1,505, with more than 20% of the population living below the national poverty line. 3 Pakistan largely has a hot desert climate near the coast in the south ... 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PDF Climate change in rural Pakistan: evidence and experiences from a This article presents findings from a National Geographic Society funded project, which employed a people-centered, narratives-based approach to study climate impacts and adaptation strategies of people in 19 rural study sites in four provinces of Pakistan (N = 108). The study looked at six climate-related stressors—changes in weather ... Climate change and women's place-based vulnerabilities CASE STUDY. Climate change and women's place-based vulnerabilities - a case study from Pakistani highlands. ... Taking empirical evidence from the hazard affected region of Chitral Pakistan, we argue that climate change vulnerabilities are contextually determined, are place based and impact individual members of households differently. ... Intergovernmental relations in climate change governance: A Pakistani case The case study method is an appropriate study to uncover things that are not apparent and this method is suggested where quantitative data alone cannot explain a phenomenon ... It issued a comprehensive report stating the actual impacts of climate change on Pakistan and demanded concrete actions for fixing the issue of climate change in ... Policy implementation barriers in climate change adaptation: The case As a case study, Pakistan's national climate change policy was considered. Pakistan is the eighth most climate change impacted country in the world. The results conclude that a prevalent top-down frame of management, centred-around federalism, has created vacuums for misinterpretation, poor understanding amongst policy implementers and false ... Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study The current empirical study explores the linkage between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, average temperature, cultivated area, consumption of fertilizer, and rice production in Pakistan. For this research, the annual time series data from 1968 to 2014 were used to enhance the validity of the empirical outcomes. The cointegration analysis with the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds ... Climate Impacts on the agricultural sector of Pakistan: Risks and A study conducted by Siddiqui et al., (Gijsbertsen et al., 05 August, 2017) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the major crops (Wheat, Rice, Maize, Cotton, and Sugarcane) of Pakistan reported that all major crops will be significantly affected by climate change. The impact of climate change significantly changes the precipitation and ... How Pakistan floods are linked to climate change The majority of Pakistan's population live along the Indus river, which swells and can flood during monsoon rains. The science linking climate change and more intense monsoons is quite simple ... Climate Change Profile of Pakistan Catastrophic floods, droughts, and cyclones have plagued Pakistan in recent years. The 2010 flood killed 1,600 people and caused around $10 billion in damage. The 2015 Karachi heat wave led to the death of more than 1,200 people. Climate change-related natural hazards may increase in frequency and severity in the coming decades. Climate change likely increased intense rainfall in Pakistan: study Human-caused climate change likely increased the intense rainfall that flooded large parts of Pakistan, according to rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists as part of the World Weather Attribution group. 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The study focuses on four areas pertaining to resilience: movements and migration processes; shifts in poverty levels ... Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan ©The Pakistan Development Review 49:4 Part II (Winter 2010) pp. 799-822 Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan Pervez Zamurrad Janjua, Ghulam Samad, and Nazakat Ullah Khan 1. INTRODUCTION Atmospheric condition which remains for some days is called weather, whereas, if Environmental Rights and Case of Climate Justice in Pakistan al Rights and Case of Climate Justice in PakistanAdeel Mukhtar Mirza*AbstractPakistan's. fforts for environmental protection and climate justice offers a striking story. Pakistan not only proved to be an astral leader as Chair of G77 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, but its judiciary has also been playing a critical role ... Climate Modeling for Macroeconomic Policy : A Case Study for Pakistan As the effects of climate change become increasingly evident, the design and implementation of climate-aware policies have assumed a more central role in the . Climate Modeling for Macroeconomic Policy : A Case Study for Pakistan Impact of climate change on electricity demand: a case study of Pakistan title = "Impact of climate change on electricity demand: a case study of Pakistan", abstract = "The energy sector is sensitive to changing weather patterns and Pakistan is one of those countries where temperature rise induced by climate change is expected to be above the world average. CR4HC The case studies present these organizations' climate resilience stories, including actions that are highlighted as climate resilience recommendations in the CR4HC toolkit. Like the introductory and recommendations sections of the toolkit, case study content can be viewed on the website, or downloaded as separate PDF documents. Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre Global Climate-Change Impact Studies Centre is a dedicated research institute for climate change studies in Pakistan. The Centre is mandated for national level R&D effort, capacity building, policy analysis, information dissemination and assistance to national planners and policymakers on issues related to past and projected future climatic changes in the country, their likely impacts on the ... Climate Induced Migration in Pakistan: Global discourse, local This study also makes comparisons between popular global perspectives and field realities by studying incidences of movements in three distinct regions of Pakistan, by presenting case studies that ... Modeling and monitoring cotton production using remote ... It suggests that the crop yield is expected to increase with lower temperatures in the study region. With climate change advancing, the temperatures are expected to increase in these regions. ... Modeling and monitoring wheat crop yield using geospatial techniques: A case study of potohar region, Pakistan. Journal of the Indian Society of ... Linking social protection and resilience to climate change: A case This thesis examines the linkages between social protection and resilience to climate change among poor rural households. To date there is a very limited understanding of the potential role of social protection programmes in contributing to an increase in resilience of the rural poor with respect to climate change. An improved understanding of these links can help to build the knowledge base ... assignment essay homework paper phd report resume review speech thesis